Is it insider trading if I know a company WON'T be the subject of the investigation and I buy NO shares? - You didn't choose to be an option in the prediction market. - You don't have insider information that something IS happening. - You don't have absolute certainty that it won't be about you. Its possible that false acusations are made based on a misunderstanding of how your company works. You are well informed, and have high confidence something won't happen based on your understanding, but have no evidence that something will happen. Is that insider trading? Think about an example in traditional markets. Say the SEC announces they will launch an investigation into a company, and will announce the specific company next week. A prediction market is created for your company. You have no certainty that the investigation is about your company or not, but you have no evidence that it is. This is more information than the average person has, but it does not carry the same weight as direct knowledge that it is about your company. I'm curious what others think about this.