Original article | Odaily Odaily( @OdailyChina )
Author｜jk
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a large-scale military strike against Iran. The operation aimed to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities, ballistic missile systems, and military leadership, and openly declared its intention to overthrow the current Iranian regime. The airstrikes covered multiple cities, including Tehran and Isfahan. Supreme Leader Khamenei was reported dead by Israel, and at least 200 people have been killed inside Iran.
Iran immediately launched a large-scale retaliatory attack, firing missiles and drones at Israel and seven Arab countries—Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE—that host US military bases, and announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The Fairmont Hotel on Dubai's iconic Palm Jumeirah caught fire due to missile debris, the Burj Khalifa was evacuated, and several Middle Eastern countries closed their airspace. Khamenei and the Iranian president were reportedly moved to safe locations. The EU, Oman, and other countries called for restraint, and the international community widely feared that the conflict could escalate into a full-blown regional war.
Background: Long-simmering resentment was on the verge of erupting.
Beginning in late December 2025, Iran experienced its largest nationwide wave of protests since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The protests were sparked by the continued collapse of the Iranian rial and the worsening economic crisis. The demonstrations quickly spread to over a hundred cities, with some citizens openly calling for the overthrow of the current regime. The Iranian government responded with violent repression, and estimates of the death toll ranged from 3,000 to 32,000, reflecting a significant divergence of opinions.
Meanwhile, diplomatic tensions between the US and Iran continued to escalate. In January 2026, US President Trump publicly voiced solidarity with Iranian protesters and announced the deployment of a large naval force to the Middle East, including two aircraft carriers. On February 6, the US and Iran held indirect nuclear talks in Muscat, Oman. However, just hours before the attack, Oman's Foreign Minister stated that the negotiations had made "significant progress."
On February 24, in his State of the Union address, Trump accused Iran of "restarting its nuclear weapons program" and claimed that Iran was developing long-range missiles capable of threatening the U.S. mainland, warning that the U.S. would take action if necessary. It is understood that Israel had been secretly planning this operation for months, with the specific date determined weeks in advance, and the Iranian negotiating parties were not notified before the attack.
The US and Israel launched a large-scale air strike.
On Saturday morning, February 28, 2026, local time, Israel and the United States launched a large-scale military strike against Iran. Israel named the operation "Operation Roaring Lion," while the U.S. Department of Defense named it "Operation Epic Fury." The attack took place on the first day of Iran's working week, and millions of Iranians were caught in the airstrikes while commuting to work or taking their children to school.
The airstrikes targeted multiple cities including Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah. The US focused its attacks on Iranian ballistic missile facilities and targets related to its nuclear program, while Israel targeted Iran's military and political leadership. Reports indicate that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's residence in Tehran was directly hit by seven missiles, with satellite images showing severe damage to the complex. Israeli military officials stated that several senior Iranian officials were killed in the initial strikes, but this has not yet been definitively confirmed.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghji stated that Khamenei and President Pezeshkian had been safely transferred to a secret location and were currently out of danger. However, according to a senior Israeli official, "Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei died in an Israeli airstrike against Iran," while Reuters reported that Khamenei's body had been found. As of press time, the two sides have conflicting accounts.
In an eight-minute video released by Truth Social, Trump announced that the United States had launched a "major military operation" against Iran, aiming to "eliminate the direct threat posed by the Iranian regime to the American people," "destroy Iran's missile industry," and "completely destroy" the Iranian navy. He also appealed to members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, urging them to lay down their weapons in exchange for "complete waivers." Trump further addressed the Iranian people, saying: "Your moment of freedom has arrived… When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours. This may be your only chance in generations."
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the joint strike operation will continue "for as long as necessary." Unlike the limited strikes in June 2025, this operation is expected to last several days. Iranian state media, citing Red Cross data, reported that at least 201 people had died in attacks across 24 provinces in Iran as of press time.
Iran launches full-scale retaliation, affecting many Middle Eastern countries.
Iran retaliated immediately, launching numerous ballistic missiles and drones at Israel and several Arab countries hosting US military bases. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared that "all Israeli and US military targets in the Middle East have been powerfully struck by Iranian missiles," and stated that "the operation will continue until the enemy is completely defeated."
In Israel, air sirens sounded in multiple locations, and explosions were reported in the north. Israel's Iron Dome air defense system intensively intercepted incoming missiles over Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.
In the Persian Gulf region, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE confirmed being hit by missiles; Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan, and Qatar reported successfully intercepting incoming missiles. The Bahraini government confirmed that Manama, the headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Fleet, was attacked by missiles and condemned the act as a "blatant violation of Bahrain's sovereignty." An Iranian drone struck a civilian residential building near the Bahrain capital, and footage showed the building engulfed in flames.
The trails left by air defense systems and penetration missiles over Israel. Source: AFP
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard also launched missiles at the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Meanwhile, the Houthi rebels in Yemen announced they would resume attacks on the Red Sea. Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, and the Revolutionary Guard announced via radio that all ships were prohibited from passing through. Flights in the Middle East were immediately paralyzed, with Iran, Israel, Iraq, the UAE, Jordan, Qatar, and other countries closing their airspace, resulting in the cancellation of approximately 24% of flights to and from the Middle East.
Dubai's Palm Islands were hit by missile debris, and the Burj Khalifa was evacuated.
In Iran's full-scale retaliatory action, Dubai's iconic landmark, Palm Jumeirah, became the focus of global attention. Although the Palm Island was not directly hit by Iranian missiles, after the UAE's air defense system successfully intercepted Iranian missiles in the waters near the island, fragments of the destroyed missiles scattered across the Palm Island area, igniting a building inside the five-star Fairmont The Palm hotel.
Eyewitnesses described the scene as extremely chaotic, with thick black smoke billowing from the direction of the hotel, and multiple ambulances rushing to the scene with sirens blaring. Several Chinese people shared photos of the scene on Xiaohongshu (a Chinese social media platform).
The hotel after the attack. Source: X
Earlier that day, the Burj Khalifa, the world's tallest building, was evacuated due to security concerns. Residents of Abu Dhabi received emergency alerts on their mobile phones, urging them to stay away from windows and immediately seek safe locations, as the city houses the U.S. Zayed Air Base , a key target for Iranian strikes. The UAE Ministry of Defense announced that its air defense system had "highly effectively" intercepted multiple Iranian missiles and drones, condemning such attacks as "blatant violations of national sovereignty and international law."
Polymarket odds have skyrocketed, with payouts exceeding thirty million US dollars.
The outbreak of this military action has left an extremely rare historical pattern in the forecasting market. Several related markets on Polymarket saw a sharp, vertical rise immediately after the airstrikes, with price curves almost forming a straight line as they surged to the top.
In the market for whether Khamenei can step down as Supreme Leader before March 31 , the probability, which had been hovering in the range of about 20% to 30% for a long time, suddenly soared to 95% after today's airstrike , a single-day increase of 87 percentage points, with a total trading volume of $29.31 million , indicating that a large amount of funds rushed into the market to bet on regime change after the news of the airstrike.
Another longer-term market, "whether the Iranian regime can fall before June 30," also experienced dramatic fluctuations, with the probability jumping sharply from about 16% to 55% , a single-day increase of 39 percentage points, and a trading volume of $2.37 million.
Screenshot from Polymarket. Source: Polymarket
Meanwhile, the market probability related to "whether the United States will strike Iran" has risen to 100% and entered the settlement process , resulting in the complete liquidation of short positions betting that the strike will not occur.
Odaily will continue to track the latest developments and bring you the latest news as soon as possible.
