Source: Tiger Research
Author: Ryan Yoon
Compiled and edited by: BitpushNews
In February 2026, as the Iranian attacks unfolded, gold prices soared while Bitcoin suffered a severe setback. Can we still believe Bitcoin is " digital gold "? This article will explore the conditions that Bitcoin must meet to become the "next generation of gold."
Key points
In every geopolitical crisis, gold rises while Bitcoin falls. After six tests, the data has never substantiated the narrative of "digital gold."
While governments are stockpiling gold, they are excluding Bitcoin from their reserves. For investors, Bitcoin exhibits asymmetry: it falls with the stock market but fails to rebound in tandem with it.
Three structural asymmetries have prevented Bitcoin from gaining safe-haven asset status: an oversupply of derivatives (market structure), dominance of leveraged traders (participant structure), and a lack of repeatable behavioral records (behavioral accumulation).
While Bitcoin is not a safe-haven asset, it is a “crisis utility asset” that can indeed play a role in extreme environments such as border closures and bank shutdowns.
If these three asymmetries narrow, Bitcoin may no longer be a replica of gold, but rather evolve into a new category: "next-generation gold." Generational change and algorithmic adoption are variables that could accelerate this process.
1. Is Bitcoin really "digital gold"?
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched an attack on Iran. When "Operation Epic Fury" was announced, gold prices surged. In contrast, Bitcoin briefly fell to $63,000, and although it recovered somewhat within the day, its reaction was strikingly different.
During geopolitical shocks such as wars, Bitcoin's performance has completely diverged from gold. While Bitcoin recovers relatively quickly after its initial drop, cascading forced liquidations by leveraged traders cause its decline to far exceed that of other assets. During the Iran-Israel conflict, it fell by as much as -9.3% intraday, and by -7.6% during the Ukraine war. Meanwhile, gold has risen.
When an asset collapses the moment a crisis breaks out, can we really call it "digital gold"?
2. Bitcoin is not "digital gold" for countries or investors.
Bitcoin was not originally designed to be "digital gold." Satoshi Nakamoto's 2008 white paper was titled "Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System." Its starting point was a transfer mechanism, not a store of value.
The narrative of "digital gold" gained traction in 2020 during an era of zero interest rates and quantitative easing. As concerns about currency devaluation peaked, Bitcoin attracted attention as a store of value. However, in practice, neither nations nor investors have viewed it as "digital gold."
2.1 National Level: Hoarding Gold, Only "Considering" Bitcoin
Data from the World Gold Council shows that central banks around the world have been increasing their gold holdings year by year. However, no major central bank has included Bitcoin in its formal reserve assets.
Some argue that the US formally established a "strategic Bitcoin reserve" through an executive order in March 2025. The text of the order even mentions that "Bitcoin is often referred to as 'digital gold.'" However, details cannot be ignored: its scope is limited to assets acquired through criminal and civil forfeiture. The government is not buying new Bitcoins, but rather choosing to hold rather than liquidate forfeited assets.
It is worth noting that as the attractiveness of US Treasury bonds declines, Europe and China are actively buying gold, but Bitcoin has not appeared on their alternative lists.
2.2 Investor Perspective: Following the decline but not the rise
The second half of 2025 will be decisive. While the Nasdaq hit an all-time high, Bitcoin plummeted more than 30% from its October peak of $125,000. The two began to decouple.
The real problem isn't the decoupling itself, but the direction. Bitcoin falls in tandem with the stock market, but fails to rise with it when the market rallies. This is the worst possible combination for investors. There's no reason to hold an asset in your portfolio that only shares downside risk while missing out on upside potential.
3. Why has Bitcoin failed to become "digital gold"?
Safe-haven assets are not simply assets whose prices will rise. In an academic definition, safe-haven assets are those whose correlation with other assets drops to zero or turns negative during periods of extreme market downturn. The key is the predictability of their response during crises. By this standard, the difference between gold and Bitcoin is evident.
Three structural asymmetries explain this gap:
Market structure asymmetry: Gold has physical demand supporting its price floor, and futures leverage is relatively low. Bitcoin derivatives trading volume is approximately 6.5 times that of spot trading, and it trades 24/7, making it one of the first assets to be sold off during a crisis.
Asymmetric participation: Crisis buyers of gold are patient capital (central banks, pension funds). In contrast, the dominant players in the Bitcoin market are leveraged traders and hedge funds, which are the quickest to withdraw during crises.
Asymmetric behavioral accumulation: "Buy gold during a crisis" is a behavioral pattern that has been repeated for decades and has become a formula. Bitcoin needs time to earn the same level of trust.
4. Although not "safe," it has proven to be "useful."
When it comes to security, it's difficult to call Bitcoin digital gold. But its practicality during crises is real.
Ukraine (2022): Following the outbreak of war, the Central Bank of Ukraine restricted electronic transfers and set withdrawal limits. Citizens were unable to withdraw their deposits. Some refugees stored their Bitcoin seed phrase on USB drives across borders and exchanged them for local currency in Poland through Bitcoin ATMs or P2P transactions to sustain themselves.
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) distributes the stablecoin USDC to displaced persons and allows them to exchange it for cash at MoneyGram outlets.
Iran (2026): Following the “Epic Rage Operation,” outflows from Nobitex, Iran’s largest crypto exchage, surged by 700%.
These cases demonstrate that people turn to Bitcoin not because it is safe, but because it still works when the financial system collapses.
In finance, a "safe-haven asset" means an asset with a stable price, which is different from an asset that is available during a crisis. Bitcoin provides functional value for wartime movement and transfers, but it cannot defend its price.
5. Bitcoin's "Next Generation Gold" Scenario
While Bitcoin has consistently diverged from gold during every crisis, the path to the "next generation of gold" will open if the following three asymmetries narrow:
5.1 Market Structure Transformation
The fact that derivatives trading volume reached 6.5 times that of spot trading was the trigger for the cascading liquidations. Recently, open interest in futures contracts has declined, and price discovery is shifting towards spot and ETFs. The real test lies in whether leverage will spiral out of control again in the next bull market.
5.2 Participant Transformation (Generational Change)
Following the approval of spot ETFs, institutional inflows have propelled Bitcoin into the mainstream asset market. However, this has created a paradox: the more institutional holdings Bitcoin generates, the more easily it is sold off along with the stock market during risk-averse events.
There's an overlooked variable here: generational shift. When Generation Z begins managing wealth, gold may appear as a "safe haven for their parents." This generation's first investment account is often on a crypto exchage. This instinctive behavioral shift can be more influential than institutional decisions.
5.3 Behavioral Accumulation and Transformation
It took gold approximately 50 years to establish its position after the Nixon Shock. Bitcoin may not need that long. While the sixth test (the Iranian attack) still resulted in a drop followed by a rebound, the recurrence of this pattern is building a belief that "what goes down must come back up."
An even more important variable is the algorithm. Currently, a large number of transactions are executed by AI agents and algorithms. If the strategy of "buying Bitcoin during a crisis" is embedded in an algorithm, this pattern could form without the need for human psychological preparation. Trust may be established in the code before humans do.
Conclusion: Bitcoin today is not yet "digital gold." But if it can achieve a transformation in market structure, participant composition, and behavioral accumulation based on its practicality, it will become "the next generation of gold"—not a replica of gold, but the birth of a completely new category.
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