Looking back at the director's views in January: BTC's turning point comes from a deteriorating global situation, war/blockade/sanctions. When shipping routes are blocked, the frictional costs of physical gold transactions increase, allowing BTC's new narrative to be redefined. At that time, the idea of buying gold in turbulent times might be reconsidered as "buying BTC in turbulent times." Following the events in Iran, a large amount of funds were transferred through exchanges by converting into cryptocurrency/BTC, further demonstrating the extremely high transaction costs associated with acquiring, carrying, and transporting gold after the outbreak of war, especially for ordinary people. BTC, on the other hand, becomes a more effective alternative to stablecoins in resisting censorship, sanctions, and asset freezes. The events in Iran served as a small-scale preview and were a market driver behind the recent strong rebound in Bitcoin. However, given Iran's relatively small economy, this momentum is not expected to be sustainable. When a larger geopolitical conflict erupts in the next cycle, it's easy to see where the driving force behind BTC's rise will come from.
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Forgiven
@forgivenever
01-25
老实说,主任对“超级周期”抱有悲观的心态,有两点:
1. 将特朗普视为行业的救星是本周期行业最大的预期错位。现在这个预期错位还没有被市场pick up,华尔街/养老金/中东主权机构/各国央行,还都在脑补呢。
Sector:
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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