Arthur Hayes warns: BTC rebound is just a dead cat bounce, don't be too optimistic; price remains highly correlated with US stocks.

Arthur Hayes, who has accurately predicted market turning points on numerous occasions, shared a Bloomberg terminal chart on X today, which overlays Bitcoin (XBTUSD, white line), the Nasdaq index (NDX, yellow line), and the US SaaS Software ETF (IGV, green line) over the past year (March 2025 to March 2026).

We haven't decoupled from US SaaS tech companies yet. This might just be a dead cat bounce. We're not out of danger yet; let's be patient.

What does the chart say? BTC and tech stocks are inextricably linked.

According to the charts shared by Hayes, Bitcoin's price movement over the past year has almost mirrored that of IGV (iShares North American Technology Software ETF): both rose in tandem last summer, peaked together in October and November, and then plummeted in tandem at the end of January this year. The rebound in the last two weeks has also been almost identical.

As of this writing, Bitcoin is priced at approximately $73,731, down about 30% from its November high. IGV has also fallen from its peak to around 86 during the same period, a similar decline.

This means that Bitcoin is currently viewed by the market as a "high-beta technology asset" rather than an independent safe-haven asset. As long as US tech stocks remain under pressure, Bitcoin will struggle to break free from its current price movement.

"Dead Cat Jump" Risk: Rebound ≠ Reversal

Hayes' use of the term "dead cat bounce" was not arbitrary. A dead cat bounce refers to a price pattern where an asset experiences a brief rebound after a sharp decline, but then continues to fall. In technical analysis, this usually indicates that the market has not yet found a true bottom.

It's worth noting that Hayes himself has long been bullish on Bitcoin, even once predicting an extremely optimistic target of $500,000 to $750,000 by the end of the year. Therefore, when even he starts urging "patience," it might warrant a second thought from investors.

Is decoupling the true starting point of a bull market?

Analysts such as PlanB have pointed out that, looking back at the history of 2015, the decoupling of Bitcoin from US stocks is often a harbinger of the next big market trend—after the decoupling that year, BTC rose nearly 10 times in two years.

But Hayes' charts clearly show that, at least for now, this decoupling has not yet occurred. Until Bitcoin truly breaks free from its high correlation with tech stocks, any rebound is likely just a technical correction rather than a trend reversal.