Written by: Kyle Saunders
Compiled by: Chopper, Foresight News
Most research on cryptocurrencies revolves around a simple question: Who owns it? Who doesn't?
Admittedly, this is a reasonable starting point for research. Holding behavior is an observable and quantifiable actual behavior. However, for a market with a market capitalization of trillions of dollars, this may not be the most crucial issue.
If you pay attention to market developments, regulatory policies, political opinion, or the future direction of crypto assets, one question may be more relevant: Who is considering getting into cryptocurrencies?
Because the acceptance and popularization of assets is never a binary choice between one or the other, but a gradual process.
If you only study the final stage of this process, you will miss the entire chain of transformation.
Rejection → Consideration → Holding: The Three Stages of Cryptocurrency Acceptance
I recently collaborated with Erin Fitz on a new paper in which we did not view cryptocurrency acceptance as a black-and-white outcome, but rather defined it as a gradual process.
From late 2024 to 2025, we conducted three independent, representative surveys of U.S. adults. Based on the survey results, we divided the respondents into three groups:
- I do not hold, and have no intention of holding, cryptocurrency.
- I don't currently hold any cryptocurrency, but I'm considering doing so.
- Currently holding cryptocurrency
Our first conclusion was straightforward yet crucial: about one-fifth of Americans do not own cryptocurrency but are considering it.
This group is by no means an insignificant niche, nor is it a statistical error, nor is it a potential group "destined to hold" the stock. They are a distinct subgroup with unique psychological characteristics and behavioral patterns, and this attribute makes them crucial.
Why is the "potential owner" group so crucial?
If we limit our research perspective to a binary comparison between "holders" and "non-holders," it is tantamount to assuming that all people who have not entered the market are an undifferentiated whole.
But in reality, behavioral choices are never like that.
The classic theory of planned behavior in social psychology states that human behavior evolves from a series of preceding stages: ideas, attitudes, perceived control, and behavioral intentions. First comes "consideration," then "behavioral intention"; and only after "behavioral intention" is there will actual action be taken. However, each stage does not necessarily transform into the next.
In other words, all holders were potential holders; but not all potential holders will eventually become actual holders.
When we view people's engagement with cryptocurrencies as an orderly, gradual process rather than a binary characteristic, an interesting conclusion emerges: the factors influencing people's "consideration of holding" are not entirely the same as the factors driving people's "actual holding."
This transformation process involves a multi-layered screening mechanism.
What factors influence "considering holding"? What drives "actual holding"?
Some common influencing factors yielded results consistent with expectations: younger people, men, those more receptive to new experiences, and those with a higher tolerance for financial risks are more likely to cross the thresholds of "rejection → consideration" and "consideration → holding".
However, there are two sets of significantly different patterns that deserve special attention.
Factors more strongly associated with "considering holding":
- A more conservative, practical ideology
- Support the research and development of artificial intelligence technology
These factors, while present in the early stages of cryptocurrency acceptance, can explain why people are open to cryptocurrencies, but may not necessarily drive them to take the final step of "actual ownership."
Factors more strongly correlated with "actual ownership":
- Stocks held
- The need for chaos
Risk tolerance is the most significant factor overall: from the lowest to the highest level, the probability of respondents' behavioral choices changes dramatically, with the probability of refusing to hold cryptocurrency decreasing by 32 percentage points and the probability of actually holding cryptocurrency increasing by 27 percentage points.
Here is a brief summary of the core differences:
Our research data also closely aligns with the actual landscape of the cryptocurrency market: Bitcoin holds an absolute dominant position among both "potential holders" and "actual holders" (Ethereum is second), and many people are willing to explore multiple cryptocurrencies. The market itself corroborates this conclusion.
To understand how this pattern aligns with the broader technology diffusion curve (and why the "potential holder" stage will determine whether cryptocurrency development stagnates or scales up), one can compare Bitcoin with the early internet adoption trajectory for reference. Research data shows that by 2026, the acceptance rate of artificial intelligence technology in the United States had reached approximately 55%.
Furthermore, this chart in the paper also illustrates how cryptocurrency acceptance aligns with Rogers' innovation diffusion curve:
This is an adaptation of Rogers' 2003 innovation diffusion curve. The orange solid line represents the S-shaped curve (i.e., the cumulative distribution function, with scales on the left side of the vertical axis). The blue area below the curve represents the probability distribution of the five recipient groups in Rogers' model, based on the standard deviation from the mean in a normal distribution. In a normal distribution, these areas represent the probability percentage of each group in the whole: Innovators (2.5%, 0 to mean minus 2 standard deviations), Early Recipients (13.5%, mean minus 2 standard deviations to mean minus 1 standard deviation), Early Majority (34%, mean minus 1 standard deviation to mean), Late Majority (34%, mean to mean plus 1 standard deviation), and Lagging Recipients (16%, mean plus 1 standard deviation to 100%). The black dashed line represents the reported cryptocurrency holding rates of respondents in our three studies (Study 1: 13%, Study 2: 18%, Study 3: 32%).
The significance of this research conclusion extends beyond the cryptocurrency field.
You can interpret these results narrowly as consumer segmentation, but they have a broader meaning.
For market growth
The potential for expansion in the cryptocurrency market lies not in converting staunch "rejectors" into holders, but in figuring out what prevents potential holders from becoming actual holders. This obstacle may not be ideology, but rather people's perception of their own behavioral control, their anxieties about market volatility, or issues with asset liquidity.
Regarding regulatory policies
If policymakers view cryptocurrency holders solely as the only politically influential group, they risk misjudging the market. The policy direction in the digital asset space will likely depend on these open-minded but undecided potential holders. Their preferences, risk profiles, and trust in institutions will be crucial, especially given the emerging cryptocurrency regulatory framework in 2026.
Regarding public opinion
Online discussions often fall into polarization: either supporting cryptocurrencies or opposing them. But our research data shows that a large, psychologically distinct middle group exists in reality. Historically, it is never the early adopters, but this middle group, that determine whether an innovation achieves widespread adoption, stagnates, or triggers a backlash.
Acceptance and popularization are inherently gradual processes.
The core takeaway from this study is not just relevant to the cryptocurrency field, but also to the shift in research methods and cognitive perspectives.
When we reduce complex behaviors to binary, either-or choices, we risk confusing the behavioral patterns at different stages. Factors that make people open to something new may not necessarily motivate them to take action.
This applies not only to cryptocurrencies, but also to the acceptance of artificial intelligence, political participation, trust in institutions, and many other behavioral choices I have explored in this column.
The often overlooked intermediate stages often hold the most valuable behavioral patterns for exploration.
The acceptance and popularization of cryptocurrencies has never been a simple personality trait or ideological signal, but a gradual behavioral process.
If you ignore this intermediate "potential holding" phase, you will misjudge the true direction of the market and the underlying political and social logic.
