Bitcoin fell back to $70,600, while Ethereum held firm at $2,055. Analysts say the bullish rating is only 10, so don't be too optimistic about this rebound.

Bitcoin plunged from $72,300 last night, falling to a daily low of $70,658 at 1:00 AM, a drop of approximately 2.3%. This morning it has slightly recovered to $70,923, still hovering below the $71,000 mark. Ethereum has shown unusual relative strength in this market movement: it declined from $2,134 last night, hitting a low of $2,055, and has already rebounded to $2,073 this morning, a daily drop of approximately 2.9%, without following Bitcoin's further decline during the session.

All three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower, with the cryptocurrency market also under pressure.

The main trigger for this pullback came from US stocks. Yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.61%, the S&P 500 fell 0.57%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.26%, with all three major indexes closing lower.

Major tech stocks were mixed: Microsoft bucked the trend, rising over 1%, while NVIDIA, Netflix, Amazon, and Intel all closed slightly higher; Meta fell over 1%, while Apple, Tesla, and Google's parent company Alphabet saw slight declines. The cybersecurity sector was one of the few bright spots yesterday, with Okta surging 11%, CrowdStrike rising over 4%, and Datadog rising over 3%.

The recent correlation between the crypto market and the US stock market has remained high, which means that before the US stock market can clearly stabilize, the space for Bitcoin to rebound on its own momentum will be significantly compressed.

CryptoQuant Research Head: Bullish Rating: 10/10; Current Rebound is a Bearish False Move.

Julio Moreno, head of research at on-chain data firm CryptoQuant, issued a clear warning in a report on Thursday regarding Bitcoin's recent rebound from around $73,000.

"Despite the recent price rebound in Bitcoin, it remains in a bear market. Fundamentals and technical indicators still point to a bearish environment. Therefore, the current rebound is best interpreted as a bear market rally."

The most telling statistic is the CryptoQuant Bitcoin Bull Score Index: currently at only 10 out of 100 , near historical lows. This index tracks several fundamental and technical indicators typically associated with bull market cycles, including network activity, investor profit-taking, Bitcoin spot demand, and market liquidity. A score of 10 indicates that almost all of these indicators are absent, far from meeting the conditions required for a bull market to begin.

Spot demand contraction has narrowed somewhat, but remains negative.

The data isn't entirely pessimistic. Moreno points out that the contraction in Bitcoin spot demand has narrowed from approximately -136,000 BTC at the beginning of 2026 to approximately -25,000 BTC , indicating that selling pressure has indeed eased since early February. This also explains why the price has recently rebounded slightly from its lows.

However, analysts remain conservative in their conclusions: demand remains in negative territory, meaning the market as a whole is still experiencing a net outflow and has not yet generated the positive momentum to support a sustained rise. Although selling pressure has eased, buying power is still insufficient to drive a new round of bullish market activity.

Market Outlook: Whether the rebound can continue depends on whether demand turns positive.

Regarding the future market trend, there are several possible scenarios:

Scenario 1 (Bullish) : If spot demand for Bitcoin turns positive in the coming weeks, coupled with a stabilization of the US stock market, BTC has the potential to bottom out in the $71,000 to $73,000 range and then attempt to challenge the resistance around $75,000.

Scenario 2 (Neutral) : If the contraction in demand continues to narrow but does not turn positive, Bitcoin may consolidate sideways in the $70,000 to $73,000 range to digest the previous decline, with the direction yet to be determined.

Scenario 3 (Bearish) : If US stocks continue to decline and the macroeconomic environment deteriorates further, leading to a renewed expansion of negative spot demand, the $56,000 to $60,000 support range previously warned by CryptoQuant will become the focus of market attention.

Regarding Ethereum, its relative resilience in this wave is noteworthy given Bitcoin's lack of clear direction. However, whether the $2,055 support level can hold if BTC declines further remains uncertain. Based on current data, a cautious approach to each rebound is sensible until the bullish rating index significantly recovers from 10.

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