The collective wisdom of the market is starkly divided on the future course of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), the two largest cryptocurrencies in the market. While Bitcoin's recent rebound has fueled optimism, Ethereum appears to be facing a further decline, despite inflows from spot ETFs.
Recent prediction market data shows that market sentiment toward Bitcoin has shifted sharply to bullish. Forecasters estimate that there's a roughly 50% chance that Bitcoin will soon reach $84,000 (approximately 110 million won). Although down from its previous high, the recent rebound of around 7% is being interpreted by the market as a potential resumption of an upward trend, rather than a simple technical rebound.
In contrast, the sentiment surrounding Ethereum is starkly different. Despite a brief price rebound following the inflow of $169 million (approximately 220 billion won), the largest in two months, into Ethereum spot ETFs, prediction markets remain relatively cautious. More than half of Myriad forecasters believe Ethereum could fall to $1,500 (approximately 2 million won) before recovering to $3,000.
This "Ethereum pessimism" is similarly evident in major prediction markets. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi rate the odds of Ethereum surpassing $2,500 this month as relatively low, and the likelihood of hitting an all-time high within the year is also limited. Polymarket, in particular, predicts that there's a certain degree of possibility that Ethereum's market capitalization ranking will be overtaken by other cryptocurrencies this year.
Experts say that while Bitcoin has maintained its leading role by reinforcing the "digital gold" narrative, Ethereum's investment appeal has relatively weakened amid network scalability issues and the pursuit of competing Layer 1 projects.
Ultimately, the key point of interest in the virtual asset market going forward will be whether Bitcoin will recover to the $80,000 range as predicted and lead the overall market, or whether the relative underperformance of Ethereum will deepen the decoupling between the two assets. This suggests that domestic investors considering portfolio diversification should re-evaluate their asset allocation strategies.
