The market has been behaving strangely lately.
Logically, in this environment, the crypto should be experiencing a continuous decline.
Escalating conflict in the Middle East, soaring oil and gold prices, a sharp drop in South Korean stocks, and continued delays in expectations of interest rate cuts...
The negative factors were almost a chain reaction .
But what was the result?
Surprisingly, BTC has stopped falling.
BTC failed to break 60,000. It was tested three times at 63,000, but instead of collapsing, it slowly bounced back up.
There's a classic signal in the crypto: if it doesn't fall when it should, it's highly likely to rise.
Many turning points actually occur in this way.
The technical aspects are starting to change.
From a structural perspective, BTC has undergone two significant changes:
First, a breakout from the short-term downtrend channel with increased trading volume .
Second, it regained its position on the upper edge of the 72,000-ton box .
In other words, the previous downtrend line has been broken.
The market is currently more like a pullback confirmation phase after a breakout.
And there's a crucial detail that's been going on these past two days:
The pullback volume was not significant.
What does this tell us?
This indicates that although the market is fluctuating, the selling pressure is not strong .
As long as there isn't a large-scale sell-off, the market still has room to continue rising.
Key short-term level: 74,500
If we take a conservative view, we can still treat this as a range-bound market.
A key resistance level in the short term is 74,500 .
For those with relatively heavy positions:
Reducing some spot holdings at this price level is actually reasonable.
However, there is one piece of experience that many people overlook:
Resistance levels are often not broken through in one go, but rather "grinded" out over time.
As long as there is no significant drop in trading volume, the probability of a breakout will actually increase with each subsequent attempt.
The weekly chart has shown six consecutive weeks of decline, indicating a clear oversold condition.
It's actually more interesting if you look at it over a longer period.
BTC has seen six consecutive weeks of decline .
Technical indicators have also entered a clear oversold zone .
This structure usually means one thing: the weekly rebound is most likely not over yet.
This market trend cannot be ruled out.
It will go through a 1-2 month period of fluctuating upward movement.
The money supply is also quietly recovering.
There have been several changes in the funding situation recently:
In the US stock market, BTC ETFs continue to see net inflows.
Institutional stocks are also rebounding, such as MicroStrategy and Circle Internet Group .
What's even more interesting is that a single positive news item for OKB can directly trigger a 50% price increase .
This situation often indicates one thing:
Market sentiment is improving, and liquidity is recovering.
If it truly develops into a medium-term rebound, I'm looking at these two levels.
If this upward trend continues...
I personally focus on two areas when watching BTC:
First: Around 83,000 (neckline of a head and shoulders pattern)
Second: Around 85,000 (Weekly Bollinger Band Middle Line)
But interestingly—
These locations are more like areas for setting up long-term short positions.
My next strategy is actually quite simple.
In short:
Bullish on BTC rebound, but short altcoins on rallies.
Because in a bear market, counterfeit goods usually only have two tasks:
Either the market will rally to give you hope, or a rebound will allow you to break even.
For example, with Solana , I've already placed a low-leverage short order around 120 and am waiting for the right opportunity.
Finally, let me say something that many veteran traders agree with:
The people who make the most money in a bear market are often not the smartest.
Rather, they are the kind of people who are not impulsive, take their time, and can endure loneliness.
In the crypto,
Slower pace actually makes it easier to live longer.
#Discussions about counterfeit goods season drop to a two-year low
The opportunity will be gone in the blink of an eye, everyone gather quickly!
Don't let hesitation delay your best chance to make money, and don't get burned by worthless cryptocurrencies. Follow Sister Miao and get through this safely!
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