.@alexolegimas has updated his summary of the evidence on AI and productivity.  It's terrific!

At the end of January I started a "living document" tracking the impact of AI on productivity. I highlighted a disconnect: while micro studies showed a clear boost, the macro evidence was muted. I wrote that I expected this to change in the near term.  Apparently "near term" is a

Alex Imas

Twitter

The most visible bitcoin buyers in the world are buying at near-record pace. It is not enough.
A CryptoQuant weekly report showed overall 30-day apparent demand at negative 63,000 $BTC as of late Marc...

Five data sources say the same thing about bitcoin market. It's thinning from the inside

I. It suddenly started charging money, but you probably didn't even notice.

You might have seen pages like these:

- "Probability of Trump winning the 2024 election: 51.3%"

- "Probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in March: 68.7%"

- "LPL Spring Split Finals, BLG's odds of winning: 1.39"

This isn't a betting website, nor is it media commentary; it's a special entity in the Web3 world—a prediction market.

Simply put, it's a mechanism where you "vote" with real money: you believe something will...

Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, has started charging fees! Behind this lies a sobering struggle over regulation, survival, and timing.

The current crypto market is in a crucial transitional phase. After months of correction, Bitcoin has recently rebounded slightly and retested a key support level it had previously breached. However, overall, the market recovery remains fragile, and the trend remains vulnerable. Accumulating macroeconomic pressures, weakening liquidity, and approaching key policy events are causing a shift in market pricing logic. Entering April, while there are seasonally stronger expectations, historical performance has been highly divergent, suggesting that market movements are more likely to be driven by liquidity, positioning, and macroeconomic catalysts, rather than simple cyclical repetition.

Support repeatedly validated: Trend fragile...