Compared to last weekend, the prices of petroleum products have increased by 20-50 USD/barrel. Given the continuous rise in world oil prices, many predict that domestic gasoline prices may continue to be adjusted sharply upwards. Accordingly, it is predicted that the price of E5 RON92 gasoline could increase by more than 4,000 VND/liter, RON95 gasoline by more than 5,000 VND/liter. Diesel fuel prices are expected to increase by more than 7,300 VND/liter, kerosene by more than 6,300 VND/liter, and mazut by more than 3,000 VND/kg.
Fuel prices may be stabilized if they increase sharply in a short period. This is a notable point in the draft Circular guiding the Decree on petroleum business that the Ministry of Industry and Trade is currently seeking feedback on. The feedback period runs from March 3rd to March 15th, 2026 .
When will fuel price stabilization measures be implemented?
According to the draft, price stabilization measures may be implemented when: Domestic retail gasoline and diesel prices increase continuously for one month, the increase margin is large, and the total increase is 20% or more.
In this case, the authorities believe that price fluctuations could negatively impact: macroeconomic stability, inflation control, production costs, and people's lives. Therefore, stabilization measures may be activated to mitigate price shocks.
How to assess price volatility
The determination of price increases is not based on data from the entire market, but focuses on a representative group of key businesses .
Specifically: Monitoring the consumption volume of gasoline and diesel fuel, collecting data from key distributors accounting for over 70% of total national consumption. This approach aims to accurately reflect the actual market situation.
Price stabilization proposal process
According to the draft, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will be the lead agency. This agency will coordinate with the Ministry of Finance and other relevant ministries and agencies to: collect data on petroleum supply and demand, analyze fluctuations in world oil prices, assess base prices and retail prices, monitor inventory and consumption needs, and XEM production and import volumes.
Data can be compiled in cycles such as every 3 months or every 1 month. After analysis, the management agency will prepare a price stabilization report and send it to the Ministry of Finance for consolidation and submission to the Government for XEM and decision.
Petroleum products subject to monitoring.
The draft identifies the product groups eligible for price stabilization as: gasoline, bioethanol, and diesel fuel . The monitored prices are the retail prices announced by the main distributors .
Proposal to reduce import tax on gasoline and diesel to 0%.
In parallel with the above draft, the Ministry of Finance also proposed adjusting the Most Favored Nation (MFN) import tax on many energy products. The goal is to reduce price pressure and limit the risk of supply shortages amidst geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The proposals include:
- Reduced from 10% to 0% for unleaded motor gasoline and gasoline blending materials such as naphtha and reformate.
- Reduced from 7% to 0% for diesel fuel, fuel oil, aviation fuel, and kerosene.
- Reduced from 3% to 0% for certain petrochemical feedstocks such as xylene , P-xylene , and condensate.
- Reduced from 2% to 0% for some other cyclic hydrocarbons.
Context: A volatile global energy market.
These proposals emerge against the backdrop of a volatile global energy market fueled by geopolitical risks and the potential for supply disruptions.
If approved, these policies could help: reduce upward pressure on domestic fuel prices, stabilize production costs, and limit the spillover effects on inflation.
