PANews reported on March 12 that the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its forecast for oil supply growth one day after implementing a historic emergency inventory release, citing the Middle East conflict disrupting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA now expects oil supplies to increase by 1.1 million barrels per day this year, a significant downward revision from its previous forecast of 2.4 million barrels per day. All supply growth is expected to come from outside OPEC+, as the conflict forces major Gulf oil producers to cut production. March oil supplies are projected to plummet by 8 million barrels per day to 98.8 million barrels per day, the lowest level since the first quarter of 2022. The IEA stated, "The Middle East conflict is causing the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market."
According to the IEA monthly report, global oil supply is expected to decrease by 8 million barrels per day in March, falling to its lowest level since 2022. Total oil production in the Gulf countries has already decreased by at least 10 million barrels per day. If shipping flows do not recover quickly, the supply losses will further widen.
