On March 12, Coindesk analyst Omkar Godbole stated that Bloomberg reiterated its prediction that Bitcoin could fall to $10,000—a price level not seen since mid-2020. Industry observers consider this prediction absurd. However, on Deribit, the largest crypto options trading platform, approximately $800 million in open interest is concentrated in put options at $20,000, betting that the price will fall below that level. This is the fourth most popular put bet on the platform. This suggests that some traders are preparing for a potential crash. But Deribit stated that not all positions are direct bets against a price collapse.
"Most positions are more like selling put options than directional long hedges," said Sidrah Fariq, global head of retail sales at Deribit. "Traders often sell put options that are far out-of-the-money because the probability of hitting those levels is low."
Meanwhile, Bitcoin demonstrated remarkable resilience, holding steady around $70,000 even as a rebound in crude oil prices pushed benchmark oil prices near $100 in early trading, shaking traditional markets. Ethereum, XRP, and SOL also held firm, while the HYPE token rose approximately 10% in 24 hours. Analysts suggest that excessive leverage is being cleared from the Bitcoin market, paving the way for further price increases.
In an email, Diana Pires, VP of Sales at crypto platform sFOX, stated, "From a market structure perspective, this consolidation could be constructive, as reducing leveraged positions tends to lay a more stable foundation for the next move, should a clearer macro catalyst emerge."
