In early March 2026, two news items appeared almost simultaneously on the headlines of tech media. One was that Circle and Stripe were racing to build stablecoin infrastructure for AI agent payment systems, and the other was that USDC processed $1.26 trillion in transactions in February, accounting for 70% of total stablecoin activity. Yahoo Finance's headline highlighted the connection between these two events: stablecoin companies are betting that AI agents will become the next trillion-dollar payment market. This prediction is not unfounded. When OpenAI defined 2026 as the "Year of Personal Agents," and when the founder of NEAR predicted that AI agents would become the main users of blockchain, a fundamental question emerged: when hundreds of millions of AI agents begin autonomous transactions on the blockchain, what will they use to pay? Traditional credit card networks cannot open accounts for machines, the SWIFT system cannot handle microtransactions, and banks do not serve algorithms. Stablecoins—an asset class once considered a trading tool in the crypto market—are becoming the only answer. Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire gave his prediction in the earnings call: stablecoins could become the "native currency for machine-to-machine commerce." This assessment redefines stablecoins from "a safe haven for cryptocurrencies" to "the base currency of the digital economy." Meanwhile, Stripe's x402 payment feature on the Basechain allows developers to charge AI agents directly with USDC, and data shows that over 98% of such transactions are indeed settled in stablecoins. As AI agents begin to "spend money," the "money" they choose is reshaping our understanding of currency. And the significance of this transformation extends far beyond technological payment innovation.
1. AI agents don't have bank accounts, so how do they pay?
To understand why AI agents need stablecoins, we must first answer this question: when an AI agent purchases services from another AI agent, what does it use to pay? Banks don't open accounts for AI, credit cards aren't designed for algorithms, and the SWIFT network can't handle micro-transactions between machines. Traditional financial payment systems have been designed for "humans" since their inception—they require identity verification, credit assessment, and human authorization, all of which are either unavailable or prohibitively expensive for AI agents. Yat Siu, Chairman of Animoca Brands, stated bluntly in a late February presentation: "Agents' currency and transaction systems will move on-chain, replacing traditional credit cards with stablecoins or tokenized assets. These assets will be verifiable, instantly settled, and machine-readable, enabling seamless and efficient transactions between agents." This statement pinpoints the core issue. AI agents need more than just "money"; they need a programmable, instantly settled, and low-friction payment interface. Stablecoins perfectly meet these needs: they operate on the blockchain, enabling instant 24/7 transfers; they are programmable, allowing payment conditions to be executed automatically via smart contracts; and their price is stable, preventing asset devaluation for AI agents performing tasks due to market fluctuations. In an early March interview, NEAR Protocol co-founder Illia Polosukhin painted a grander picture: “The users of the blockchain will be AI agents. AI will be at the front end, and the blockchain will exist as the back end. The goal is to let your AI hide the entire blockchain—the fact that we have block explorers is actually a failure because we haven't abstracted the technology.” In her vision, future AI agents will interact directly with the blockchain protocol, autonomously completing payments, managing assets, and coordinating services. Humans will only need to talk to the AI, telling it to “book me a flight” or “vote on that proposal,” with the agent handling the rest on the chain. Humans will be unaware of the blockchain's presence throughout the process, yet every value transfer occurs on-chain, using stablecoins as the settlement medium. This is not science fiction. Stripe's x402 payment feature, launched on the Base chain in February, already allows developers to directly charge AI agents using USDC. According to data from Dune Analytics, as of early March, the x402 protocol's transaction volume on the EVM chain was approximately $25.81 million, with 98.6% of transactions settled in USDC. The situation is similar on the Solana chain, where USDC accounts for a staggering 99.7% of transaction volume. This means that in the AI agent payment scenarios that have already occurred, stablecoins have become almost the only option.
II. From 1.8 trillion to the issuance of licenses: The evolutionary path of stablecoins
If the demand for AI-assisted transactions has opened up a world of possibilities for stablecoins, then the evolution of market size and regulatory landscape provides the practical support for this vision. Consider these figures: According to Artemis and DeFiLlama, in February 2026, on-chain stablecoin transactions reached a record $1.8 trillion, a 22% increase from $1.47 trillion in December 2025. What does this mean? It's equivalent to approximately 1.8% of global GDP, exceeding the annual economic output of most countries. USDC performed particularly well, with a monthly transaction volume of approximately $558 billion, accounting for 31%, a significant increase from 24% a year earlier. Analysts attribute this change to institutional participants' clear preference for compliant dollar infrastructure. Circle's own data also confirms this trend. In 2025, Circle's revenue reached $2.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 64%. Bernstein, in a recent research report, gave Circle an "outperform" rating with a target price of $190, calling it a long-term winner in the sector. Circle used USDC to complete a cross-account settlement of $68 million across eight internal entities within 30 minutes, while the same operation via traditional bank wire transfer would take 1 to 3 days. CEO Jeremy Allaire revealed that this process completed approximately 90% of the company's internal transfer settlements within a single day. Looking at the regulatory front, in March 2026, the world's three largest economies almost simultaneously released key signals. In Hong Kong, Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po clearly stated at the end of February that Hong Kong had implemented a licensing system for fiat-backed stablecoin issuers and would issue the first batch of licenses in March. According to verification by reporters from Cailian Press, HSBC, Standard Chartered, and the local virtual asset trading platform OSL are rumored to be among them. Although the relevant institutions have not yet responded directly, an insider from one of the foreign banks revealed that they are "still waiting for official news from regulators." According to the Stablecoin Ordinance to be released in 2025, Hong Kong stablecoin issuers must operate under a license, stablecoins must be backed 1:1 by high-quality reserve assets, and information must be disclosed regularly. This means that stablecoins have officially entered Hong Kong's regulated financial system. In the US, the OCC, under the GENIUS Act, proposed a comprehensive regulatory framework for stablecoins, providing a federal-level legal basis for the compliant issuance and circulation of stablecoins. The EU's MiCA Act had already established a clear regulatory path for stablecoins. The simultaneous construction of regulatory frameworks by these three major economies signifies a turning point for stablecoins, moving from a "gray area" to "institutionalized operation." The changing competitive relationship between Circle and Stripe precisely reflects the impact of this institutionalization. For a long time, Circle was responsible for "producing money"—mapping real-world US dollars onto the blockchain to mint USDC; Stripe was responsible for "making money flow"—embedding stablecoins into real-world business scenarios through a global payment network. Their roles were clearly defined and complementary. However, as the stablecoin market evolves from a crypto tool to financial infrastructure, this balance is being disrupted. Circle has begun to extend upstream, launching the Arc L1 blockchain, the cross-chain transfer protocol CCTP, and the Circle Payments Network, attempting to build a complete stablecoin payment network; Stripe, on the other hand, is penetrating downstream, acquiring Bridge for $1.1 billion, co-developing the Tempo L1 settlement chain with Paradigm, and directly entering the AI-assisted payment scenario through its x402 function. When stablecoins become infrastructure, whoever controls the flow of funds can define the rules. The competition between Circle and Stripe is a manifestation of this logic.
III. Two cycles, one heart: How stablecoins connect the digital and real worlds.
If we were to use a metaphor to understand the role of stablecoins in digital civilization, "blood system" might be apt. It has two cycles: an "internal circulation" within the digital world and an "external circulation" connecting the virtual and real economies. The picture of the internal circulation is taking shape. According to data from RWA.xyz, as of March 2026, the on-chain value of tokenized real-world assets, excluding stablecoins, had exceeded $25 billion, nearly four times the approximately $6.4 billion a year earlier. The on-chain size of six major asset classes—US Treasury bonds, commodities, private credit, institutional alternative investment funds, corporate bonds, and non-US government debt—has all exceeded $1 billion. The issuance, trading, and settlement of these RWA assets heavily rely on stablecoins as a medium of value. Meanwhile, the rise of the AI agent economy is creating new demand. According to data from x402scan.com, as of early March, the global x402 ecosystem had exceeded 163 million transactions, with over 435,000 AI agents for buyers and over 90,000 AI agents for sellers. On an AI agent social platform called Moltbook, the number of AI agents has reached nearly 2.85 million, an increase of almost 2.4 times from 1.2 million a week after its launch. These AI agents provide services and exchange value with each other, and stablecoins are the most commonly used settlement tool among them. The logic of the external circulation is equally clear. Stablecoins, through compliant issuance and exchange, bring external fiat currency funds into the digital world. Taking the stablecoin licenses soon to be issued in Hong Kong as an example, stablecoins issued by licensed institutions must meet the 1:1 reserve requirement, which means that each stablecoin is backed by one US dollar or Hong Kong dollar. When investors buy stablecoins with fiat currency, the funds enter the digital world; when they exchange the stablecoins back into fiat currency, the funds flow back into the real economy. In this process, stablecoins play the role of a "converter," allowing funds to flow freely between the virtual and the real. RWA's tokenization further strengthens this cycle. When a company tokenizes its accounts receivable or property assets and issues them on-chain, investors subscribe with stablecoins, and the company obtains stablecoins and then exchanges them for fiat currency for operations—this completes a full flow of funds from the real to the digital and back to the real. JPMorgan Chase's multi-billion dollar tokenized collateralized repurchase transactions processed through the Kinexys platform, BlackRock's tokenized fund BUILD launched on Ethereum, and Franklin Templeton's migration of the US government money market fund FOBXX to the Solana public chain—these moves by traditional financial giants are essentially building pipelines connecting the virtual and real economies with stablecoins.
IV. Visible Trends, Unseen Risks
Every technological revolution comes with both opportunities and risks, and the evolution of stablecoins is no exception. Let's start with the boundaries. In mainland China, according to Document No. 42 jointly issued by eight departments, RWA tokenization and related services are "strictly prohibited" within the country, while overseas operations must comply with the filing system. This means that the stablecoin application scenarios discussed in this article all occur within overseas compliance frameworks and do not constitute any guidance or advice for domestic operations. For mainland Chinese companies and investors, paying attention to global trends and understanding the technological logic is necessary, but any cross-border business must be cautiously pursued within regulatory red lines. Challenges are equally significant. Security risks are paramount—whether the reserve assets held by stablecoin issuers are transparent, whether smart contracts have vulnerabilities, and whether cross-chain bridges are secure are all directly related to fund security. Compliance risks follow closely—the global regulatory landscape remains fragmented; a stablecoin compliant in one jurisdiction may face restrictions or even bans in another. Market risks also objectively exist—although stablecoins are marketed as "stable," historical de-anchoring events have occurred, and in extreme cases, liquidity depletion may lead to redemption difficulties. So, what do these trends mean for different types of decision-makers? For financial institution executives, stablecoins are reshaping the underlying logic of cross-border payments, cash management, and future business settlements. The issuance of stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong serves as a noteworthy window: the compliance practices of licensed institutions, their integration with the traditional financial system, and the actual efficiency of cross-border capital flows will all provide a reference for the future strategic planning of financial institutions. For strategic decision-makers in technology companies, the integration of AI agents and stablecoins may become the next competitive arena. If your company is developing an AI agent product, has it reserved a stablecoin payment interface? When the agent pays fees to third-party service providers, does it support automated, low-cost on-chain settlement? These questions may become competitive barriers for products within the next year or two. For investors, the strategic value of stablecoin infrastructure providers needs to be reassessed. Circle, Stripe, and financial institutions deeply involved in the compliance ecosystem are becoming key builders of the "blood system" of digital civilization. At the same time, risk identification is equally important—compliance risks arising from global regulatory fragmentation, operational risks from technological security, and profitability risks from market competition all need to be included in the investment decision-making framework. In March 2026, when OpenClaw developers wrote in their update log, "We've fixed more problems than we created—that's progress," they probably didn't realize that this statement also applies to the evolution of the entire digital civilization. From a trading tool in the crypto market to a "native currency" for AI agents, and then to the lifeblood connecting the virtual and real economies, stablecoins have progressed step by step, accompanied by problem-solving and boundary exploration. This process is far from over, but the direction is clear—in an era where AI agents begin to "spend money," stablecoins are becoming their most convenient tool and an indispensable infrastructure of digital civilization. When your company begins deploying AI agents, are you ready to open a "bank account" for them? (Data sources: Cailian Press, RWA.xyz, Artemis, DeFiLlama, Dune Analytics, x402scan.com; data as of March 12, 2026. This article does not constitute any investment advice, and the overseas cases mentioned are not applicable to the regulatory framework of mainland China.)
