Amid escalating geopolitical tensions in Iran and international oil prices climbing back above $100 a barrel, Forbes recently released an analysis suggesting that Bitcoin may struggle to maintain its status as a "digital gold" safe haven in the short term under such macroeconomic pressures. The analysis outlines two different downside scenarios, with the worst-case scenario seeing BTC fall to between $40,000 and $45,000.
Historical pattern: Regardless of whether oil prices rise or fall, BTC is under pressure.
Forbes, after reviewing historical data, points out that whether oil prices plummet or surge above $100, Bitcoin often faces downward pressure, albeit at different paces. The core logic is that soaring oil prices represent rising inflationary pressures, forcing central banks to maintain high interest rates, further diminishing the attractiveness of risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Of particular note is that the correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq 100 ETF reached as high as 85.4% during the period of soaring oil prices, making it much closer to a high-beta technology asset than a traditional "hard asset" or "inflation hedge" as most investors would expect.
However, during the recent conflict between the US and Iran, BTC has actually risen against the trend. Forbes warns that if high oil prices persist, Bitcoin may return to its previous downward pressure.
Two prediction scenarios
Based on oil price trends, the Forbes report presents the following two main scenarios:
- Scenario 1 (Mild) : If oil prices remain above $100 per barrel for an extended period, BTC may fall by 15% to 25% from its current level of $70,000, dropping to the $50,000 to $58,000 range.
- Scenario 2 (Severe) : If the conflict with Iran escalates further, pushing oil prices to $130 to $140, BTC may fall back to $40,000 to $45,000, which means there is still more than 40% downside potential from the current price.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $72,000, down about 40% from its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025, and is in a long-term technical correction phase.
However, Forbes also pointed out the potential for a price recovery. Historically, major macroeconomic crises have often been followed by fiscal stimulus and liquidity expansion. If oil prices can fall below $80 per barrel within a few months, BTC is expected to begin recovering by the end of 2026, and the probability of it challenging $100,000 again will also increase.
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