On March 13, the US fourth-quarter real GDP growth rate was significantly revised down to 0.7%, from an initial estimate of 1.4%, considerably lower than the market expectation of 1.5%, indicating a marked slowdown in economic momentum. Following the data release, the market still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as early as September, but given persistent inflation and the Middle East situation pushing up oil prices, the prospect of a rate cut remains uncertain.
Meanwhile, the U.S. PCE price index rose 0.3% month-on-month in January, and climbed to 2.8% year-on-year; the core PCE, excluding food and energy, rose 0.4% month-on-month and climbed to 3.1% year-on-year, reaching a near two-year high. The core PCE has recorded a 0.4% month-on-month increase for two consecutive months, indicating that inflation remains sticky.
