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ToggleU.S. officials told The Wall Street Journal that the Trump administration could announce as early as this week that several countries have agreed to join a coalition to protect ships sailing along the Strait of Hormuz, off the coast of Iran. However, disagreements remain regarding the timing of the operation—whether it should begin before the end of the U.S.-Iran military conflict or after it has subsided. The White House declined to comment, stating that the announcement may be adjusted depending on the situation on the battlefield.
Many countries hold conservative stances, with Germany explicitly stating its refusal.
Despite the emerging outlines of a maritime coalition, many countries remain highly cautious about rashly committing military resources while hostilities continue. German Foreign Minister Johanna Wadfol stated explicitly on March 15 that Germany would not participate in any international military operations to protect merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz, a statement that could trigger a domino effect of similar actions by other allies.
At the heart of this diplomatic struggle lies how countries can strike a balance between strategic interests and political risks. The Strait of Hormuz carries approximately 20% of global maritime oil trade daily, and European countries are far more dependent on Persian Gulf energy than the United States. If the waterway is blocked, Europe, not the United States, will be the first to suffer.
Trump confronts NATO: Don't talk about the future if you don't contribute.
In an interview with the Financial Times, Trump's rhetoric became increasingly hardline. He directly addressed Europe's energy dependence: "Those who benefit from the Straits should help ensure that nothing goes wrong there." He emphasized that Europe is heavily reliant on oil from the Persian Gulf, while the United States has long since broken free of this dependence.
When asked about the consequences if allies refused to cooperate, Trump bluntly warned, "If there is no response, or if the response is negative, I think it will be very bad for the future of NATO." This statement was interpreted as a public pressure on European allies, directly linking the Hormuz Strait issue to the future of NATO.
Regarding specific needs, Trump demanded that allies provide "any necessary assistance," specifically mentioning minesweepers and pointing out that Europe possesses far more minesweepers than the United States. He further hinted that he hoped Europe would send commandos or other ground military forces to directly intervene and eliminate the threat posed by Iranian personnel deploying drones and mines in the Persian Gulf.
Trump warns: Strikes on Iranian oil facilities not ruled out
In addition to diplomatic pressure, Trump simultaneously issued a military warning, stating that the United States is prepared to launch a new wave of strikes against Kharg Island, Iran's oil export hub, and may extend the target to Iran's broader oil infrastructure. Analysts point out that if such strikes were to occur, it would severely impact global oil prices, further accelerate inflationary pressures, and significantly affect risk sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.
The situation remains highly fluid, and the final composition and mode of operation of the escort coalition will largely depend on the outcome of diplomatic negotiations in the coming days.
