On March 17th, cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute published a market analysis stating that the Middle East situation entered its third week of escalation, with Brent crude oil rising 26% during the week, and the market having lowered its expectation for a 2026 interest rate cut to only one. Against this backdrop, the cryptocurrency market outperformed all major asset classes except crude oil, with BTC rising during the week, while stocks, bonds, and gold all declined.
On the macro front, core PCE annualized at 3.1%, non-farm payrolls fell by 92,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, with stagflation becoming the baseline scenario. This week, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England will all announce their interest rate decisions on the same day, making it the most concentrated single-day event in terms of macroeconomic impact in recent months.
Wintermute states that the current situation is more favorable than it has been for several months. The Coinbase premium reset, ETF inflows, and institutional trading flows all point in the same direction. Nevertheless, caution is still necessary. For Bitcoin, $74,000 and $80,000 are key resistance levels to watch. A cyclical analogy is also worth noting: historically, it takes approximately 400 days to go from peak to trough; we are currently in less than 200 days. Due to structural reasons, including the adoption of stablecoins and RWA, the increasing maturity of institutional infrastructure, and the absence of any fundamental problems, the depth of this bear market will be less than previous bear market cycles. However, a realistic expectation of the speed of recovery is still necessary.
