Bitcoin held firm around the $70,000 mark as the market entered a period of intense global monetary policy decisions — one of the most “compressed” periods in years. Simultaneously, initial signs of stabilization are gradually emerging across the entire digital asset market.
The world's largest digital asset has recovered from its higher Dip around $66,000 and returned to the $76,000 area this week, supported by steady spot buying and a return of institutional Capital .
Market data indicates that the selling pressure that dominated the early part of the quarter is gradually weakening, although investor sentiment remains cautious. According to Glassnode, market momentum has improved significantly along with a decisive shift in spot demand: buying pressure has returned and Capital inflows into ETFs are accelerating.
Investor returns are also recovering slightly, while Capital outflows have slowed. However, on-chain activity remains low and positions in the Derivative market are cautious, suggesting the market has not yet fully entered a state of renewed activity.
The recent surge is also linked to the "Short squeeze" phenomenon, highlighted by Jim Ferraioli from Charles Schwab. He stated that the increase in open interest while funding rates were negative made leveraged Short positions more susceptible to liquidation. This reflects continued high Short demand, contrary to on-chain indicators suggesting investors are preparing for an uptrend.
Organizational needs and macroeconomic factors
Demand from Wall Street continues to be a key driver. Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen consecutive days of Capital , including $202 million on March 16, led by BlackRock's IBIT fund, according to data from SoSoValue.
Weekly cash flow has also turned positive after a long period of net outflows, while institutions and businesses continue to increase their positions.
This stable demand is helping Bitcoin prices remain firm amidst volatile macroeconomic conditions. The market is currently facing a rare convergence of risk events, including the Fed's FOMC meeting, interest rate forecast updates, and policy decisions from the Bank of Japan, the ECB, and the Bank of England all within a short period.
In this context, Bitcoin is showing signs of decoupled from the stock market by maintaining a stable price, despite pressure from inflation due to oil prices and geopolitical tensions.
Some analysts suggest this is similar to previous tightening cycles, where Bitcoin bottomed Dip earlier than other riskier assets. According to Bitfinex, the $74,000–$76,000 range could act as short-term resistance if the Fed does not signal easing.
From a different perspective, Lacie Zhang from Bitget Wallet argues that central banks are more likely to maintain their current stance rather than make a drastic shift, especially given the risk of conflict in the Middle East. She believes that tight liquidation will not hinder institutional accumulation, and as interest rates begin to fall, Capital flows and risk appetite will improve, ushering in a new cycle of money flowing into the digital asset market.
Intermarket momentum and accumulation signals
The dynamics between assets are also shifting. Bitcoin has outperformed gold in recent weeks, narrowing the gap formed during the February correction. The correlation between the two assets has also turned positive after a long period of divergence, while the options market suggests volatility may be historically undervalued.
Structural indicators continue to reinforce the accumulation argument: Bitcoin volume on exchanges is decreasing, whale wallets are increasing their holdings, and long-term investors are starting to return to the market. on-chain indicators such as realized price and MVRV suggest that Bitcoin may be entering the final phase of its current cycle — a phase typically associated with strong accumulation activity.
In the Derivative market, conditions are also improving significantly. Open interest is increasing but there is no excessive leverage, while implied volatility is lower than actual volatility — a historically consistent pattern signaling positive future yields.
Short-term risks remain.
Nevertheless, macroeconomic uncertainty remains the biggest risk in the short term. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, but directional signals could strongly influence sentiment, especially as energy prices continue to impact inflation expectations.
History shows that Bitcoin often experiences negative fluctuations around Fed meetings. However, some experts argue that the current context is different: leverage has been largely "shaken off" previously, while institutional money flows Vai a solid foundation. Therefore, policy-driven corrections could become buying opportunities rather than triggering a deep downtrend.
In the long term, forecasts remain mixed. Citigroup has lowered its 12-month targets for Bitcoin and Ether due to the slow progress in the US regulatory framework. However, many industry leaders remain optimistic, comparing Bitcoin's potential size to gold and suggesting that the asset could reach $1 million in the future.
News summary.
