ChainCatcher 消息，据金十报道，CME “美联储观察”显示，美联储 4 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 0%，维持利率不变的概率为 100%。到 6 月累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 11.2%，维持利率不变的概率为 88.8%。到 7 月维持利率不变的概率为 77.4%。

<p>ChainCatcher 消息，据金十报道，CME “美联储观察”显示，美联储 4 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 0%，维持利率不变的概率为 100%。到 6 月累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 11.2%，维持利率不变的概率为 88.8%。到 7 月维持利率不变的概率为 77.4%。</p>

美联储 4 月维持利率不变概率为 100%，降息概率为 0%

According to ChainCatcher, citing Jinshi, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 0%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 100%. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 11.2%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 88.8%. By July, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 77.4%.

<p>According to ChainCatcher, citing Jinshi, CME&#39;s &quot;FedWatch&quot; shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 0%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 100%. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 11.2%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 88.8%. By July, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 77.4%.</p>

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 100%, and the probability of a rate cut is 0%.

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The current crypto market is in a crucial transitional phase. After months of correction, Bitcoin has recently rebounded slightly and retested a key support level it had previously breached. However, overall, the market recovery remains fragile, and the trend remains vulnerable. Accumulating macroeconomic pressures, weakening liquidity, and approaching key policy events are causing a shift in market pricing logic. Entering April, while there are seasonally stronger expectations, historical performance has been highly divergent, suggesting that market movements are more likely to be driven by liquidity, positioning, and macroeconomic catalysts, rather than simple cyclical repetition.

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