Binance Research: Gold and Bitcoin Fall in Sync, Confirming Widespread De-risking Process

According to a report by Binance Research on March 19th, escalating geopolitical conflicts coupled with a hawkish Federal Reserve have impacted global markets, causing a stagflation in the oil market. Specifically: Oil prices surged: Brent crude rose 7%, WTI crude rose 4.2%; Stock markets generally declined: S&P 500 fell 1.45%, Nasdaq fell 1.25%, Russell 2000 fell 1.64%; Metals were under pressure: Gold fell 3.6%, silver fell 4.9%; The US dollar and US Treasuries: The US dollar index rose 0.76%, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose 6.5 basis points, and the VIX fear index surged 17% to 25; Crypto market: Bitcoin fell 4.6%, Ethereum fell 5.2%; In macroeconomic and Middle Eastern developments, Iran threatened to strike Gulf energy facilities after Israel attacked its largest gas field; Qatar's Ras Lafan industrial city was confirmed to have been damaged by missiles. Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain 98% below pre-conflict levels. The Pentagon requested the White House to approve over $200 billion in funding specifically for the war in Iraq; the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, still expecting one rate cut this year, but PPI data exceeded expectations (0.7% month-on-month, compared to an expected 0.3%). France expressed its willingness to assist in securing the Strait of Hormuz after the intense phase of the conflict ends, but most European countries refused to join the US-led operation. The market is experiencing a classic oil-driven stagflation shock. The US and Israel have directly attacked Iran's upstream energy assets for the first time, coupled with the attacks on Qatari facilities and the disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The energy shock, the higher-than-expected PPI, and the hawkish Federal Reserve have created a positive feedback loop, pushing the dollar higher and yields higher, with risk aversion spreading to all assets. Approximately 45% of S&P 500 constituent stocks have entered a buyback quiet period, further weakening technical support. Gold and Bitcoin fell in tandem, confirming a broad-based risk-averse process. Market concerns that a continued blockade in the Strait of Hormuz (over a month) could push Brent crude oil to $150, exacerbating the risk of recession or stagflation. In the near term, attention should be paid to the final date of Trump's visit to China, the progress of the Market Structure Act, the IEA's release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves (prioritizing Asia and Oceania), and daily tracking of shipping data in the Strait of Hormuz (which remained in single digits on March 19).