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ToggleBinance Research pointed out in its latest article today (19th) that the market has recently been hit by three catalysts that exploded simultaneously: Israel's direct attack on Iran's largest gas field, better-than-expected US PPI data, and the Fed's hawkish statement in its interest rate decision.
The research institute described the interaction of these three factors as forming a positive feedback loop: a stronger dollar, rising yields, and risk aversion sweeping across all asset classes.
Further Reading: Iran's Largest Gas Field Bombed, Retaliation Attacks on Three Gulf States: Brent Crude Breaks $110, Diesel Hits Four-Year High
Market data for the day: Complete retreat
Real-time data shows that energy is the only winner today:
- Brent crude ($BRN) rose 7% in a single day, and West Texas Intermediate ($CL) crude ($CL) rose 4.2%. However, almost all other assets suffered losses.
- The three major U.S. stock indexes fell by more than 1%, with the S&P 500 down 1.45%.
- Gold plunged 3.6%, while silver suffered an even steeper drop of 4.9%.
- The US dollar index rose 0.76%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield jumped 6.5 basis points.
- The VIX fear index surged 17% in a single day, surpassing the 25 mark.
- The crypto market weakened across the board, with Bitcoin falling 4.6% and briefly approaching $70,500, while Ethereum dropped 5.2%.
Holmz 98% interrupted, Qatar confirmed damage.
The source of this energy shock was the direct attack by the US-Israeli coalition on Iran's South Pars gas field and the Asalouye complex, the most direct military action against Iran's upstream energy assets to date. Simultaneously, Iran warned of retaliatory action against energy facilities in the Persian Gulf, and Qatar confirmed that its Ras Laffan industrial city was hit by missiles.
In terms of actual impact, Binance Research noted that as of March 19, crude oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz remained below 98% of pre-conflict levels, with daily flow data "still in single digits." The research emphasized that if the Hormuz blockade continues for more than a month, Brent crude oil could surge to $150 per barrel, at which point the pressure of stagflation would be incalculable.
Regarding the Pentagon, Binance Research cited sources stating that the U.S. Department of Defense has requested over $200 billion in congressional funding from the White House to support the ongoing Iranian military operations. Diplomatically, France has expressed its willingness to assist in ensuring the security of Holmz after the intense phase of the conflict ends, but most European countries have refused to join the U.S.-led escort operation.
The PPI rose 0.7% month-on-month, far exceeding expectations and not even taking oil prices into account.
Binance Research specifically highlighted the better-than-expected performance of the US Producer Price Index (PPI): the March PPI rose 0.7% month-on-month, significantly higher than the market forecast of 0.3%, and the year-on-year increase reached 3.4%, with both the headline figure and core indicators exceeding expectations across the board.
The research institute added a warning: the data does not yet account for the impact of the surge in oil prices in March, meaning that inflationary pressures may continue to rise in the coming months.
Powell explicitly refused to "see through" energy inflation.
The Federal Reserve announced that it would keep interest rates unchanged, but Binance Research emphasized that this decision to hold rates steady carried a clear hawkish signal.
The report noted that Powell explicitly rejected a strategy that ignores energy-driven inflation at the press conference and confirmed that the FOMC had discussed the option of raising interest rates; the latest Economic Projections (SEP) also revised upward the growth and inflation forecasts for 2026.
The transmission logic of the crypto market: Gold also fell this time.
Binance Research has outlined the transmission chain of the recent decline in the crypto market: rising oil prices boosted inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve became more hawkish, the US dollar strengthened, and rising yields increased real financing costs, leading to a simultaneous sell-off in both stocks and crypto assets.
It is worth noting that gold also plummeted 3.6% that day. This phenomenon is of great importance to the research institute: in the traditional crisis situation, funds will flee to gold, but this time gold fell even more than most risk assets, confirming that the market is undergoing a comprehensive "risk-averse" process, rather than seeking safe-haven alternatives.
The research institute also pointed out an additional technical pressure: approximately 45% of S&P 500 constituent stocks entered their buyback blackout period this week, and this blackout period will continue until the end of April. Without the support of this natural buying pressure, the market's technical buffer has weakened further.
Next key points of observation
The Bank of England and the European Central Bank will announce their interest rate decisions this week; the IEA plans to release 400 million barrels of oil reserves; the timing of Trump's visit to China is uncertain, but the market is paying close attention; and the daily flow data of the Strait of Hormuz is the most direct barometer of energy supply.
The research institute concluded that the central bank's policy space and Trump's market support mechanism still exist, but only if there is a clear announcement of policy support. Otherwise, under the impact of the triple catalysts, the market will find it difficult to find direction in the short term.
