Bitunix Analyst: Escalating Energy Conflicts and Liquidity Contraction Combine, BTC Fluctuates at the Lower End of the Range

According to Mars Finance, on March 20th, tensions in the Middle East continued to escalate, with market focus shifting from individual conflicts to systemic risks to energy supply chains and shipping security. Iran stated that its retaliatory actions were not yet over and considered imposing tolls on the Strait of Hormuz; meanwhile, several European countries and Japan issued a joint statement, preparing to intervene to ensure the safety of shipping lanes. The attack on Qatar's LNG facilities resulted in damage to approximately 17% of exports, further increasing uncertainty in energy supply. The US, on the other hand, released contradictory signals, considering easing restrictions on Iranian oil to lower oil prices while simultaneously increasing its military budget and regional arms sales, indicating a divergence in strategic objectives. On the policy front, the interest rate market rapidly revised its expectations, currently pricing in only a 5.5 basis point rate cut this year, with some even betting on a rate hike; the Bank of England unanimously held rates steady and signaled a potential rate hike, the European Central Bank raised its inflation forecast, and the Bank of Japan also focused on the upward risks to oil prices. The synchronized shift of major central banks globally towards a more conservative stance has led to a marginal tightening of liquidity. Meanwhile, the US plans to relax bank capital rules, releasing some funds, but this is unlikely to offset the pressure of macroeconomic contraction. In terms of market structure, the expiration of the $5.7 trillion "Triple Witching Day" options is approaching, coupled with Middle East risks, amplifying the potential for asset price volatility. The VIX remains relatively high, indicating that the market remains on high alert, with funds favoring short-term hedging rather than directional betting. Returning to the crypto market, observing the liquidation heatmap, after BTC's pullback from its highs, a clear battleground between bulls and bears has formed in the 69,000-71,000 range. This area has accumulated a large number of short-term leveraged positions, reflecting funds attempting to establish a bottom; the 68,500 range below is the core of short-term liquidity defense. Meanwhile, the 70,800 range above and the higher 72,000 area still show significant short-selling liquidity accumulation, indicating that the market has not yet seen a significant return of risk appetite. Overall, the convergence of macro liquidity contraction and energy risks keeps the market in a state of "high volatility, low trend." BTC's current movement reflects more of a test of risk tolerance than a trend reversal signal, and short-term liquidity liquidation within the range will continue to dominate.