According to Odaily Seer's monitoring, the probability of Polymarket's "crude oil (CL) reaching $90 by the end of March" has risen to 82%, with a daily increase of 67%; meanwhile, the probability of "crude oil reaching $100 by the end of March" has dropped to 36%, with a daily decrease of 52%.
In terms of background, Trump stated that Iran has agreed not to develop nuclear weapons and that the Strait of Hormuz may be jointly controlled by multiple parties. If such an agreement is reached, oil prices may fluctuate significantly. At the same time, the situation in the Middle East remains uncertain, and market expectations for short-term oil price ranges have diverged significantly.
Odaily Seer continuously focuses on the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
