According to ChainCatcher, citing Cointelegraph, Bitcoin briefly rose 4% after Trump announced a temporary de-escalation of the conflict with Iran and sought negotiations, while oil prices subsequently fell 14% to $85 per barrel for WTI crude, and the S&P 500 rose 3%. However, Bitcoin derivatives data continued to send skeptical signals, and the market lacked confidence in the $68,000 support level.
In the futures market, the annualized premium for Bitcoin 2-month futures was 2% on Monday, below the 4% to 8% range typically associated with longer settlement periods under neutral conditions, indicating insufficient demand for leveraged long positions. This lack of confidence has persisted over the past month, even after a brief price rebound to around $76,000.
In the options market, an $80,000 call option expiring on April 24th on the Deribit trading platform was priced at 0.017 BTC (approximately $1,207). With a 31-day expiration date and 48% implied volatility, the market is pricing in only a 20% probability of Bitcoin reaching $80,000 during this period. In the typically optimistic crypto market, such a low expectation of a 13% increase within the month is rare.
The Federal Reserve's pause in rate cuts makes it difficult for investors to exit fixed-income positions, and traders are likely to remain cautious until oil prices fall to $75 or below. Unless additional catalysts emerge, Bitcoin traders are unlikely to turn bullish, especially given the continued lack of conviction from on-chain data and derivatives indicators.
