Author: BlockBeats
Original title: If the US and Iran fail to reach an agreement in 5 days, what cards does Trump have left?
On March 23, Trump announced a five-day pause in the strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure, claiming that there had been "very good and productive dialogue" and "significant points of consensus" between the US and Iran. Following this announcement, Brent crude oil prices plummeted from $112 to $99.94, a 10.92% drop in a single day—the largest single-day decline since the start of the Epic Fury attack.
However, Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf denied that any direct negotiations had taken place that day. Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan were acting as intermediaries, with Kushner and Witkov coordinating, but there was disagreement on whether talks were even taking place.
This is not the first time Trump has issued an ultimatum and then backed down on the Iran issue. A similar pattern has occurred seven times since 2018.
7 threats, 2 carried out
If you look at all of Trump's major threats to Iran since 2018, the pattern is very clear.
In 2018, Iran withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, and as promised, sanctions were reinstated. In February 2026, it launched Epic Fury, again delivering on its word, killing Khamenei within 24 hours and destroying over 70% of Iran's missile launchers (according to Israeli intelligence assessment). Both of these actions were fully executed, causing a dramatic reaction in oil prices; Epic Fury caused Brent crude to surge from $71 to $119.50, a 70% increase.
But the other side is equally prominent. In June 2019, Iran shot down a US drone, and Trump ordered strikes against Iranian radar and missile sites. The military was already "cocked and loaded," but the strike was halted 10 minutes before it was to begin. On March 21, 2026, a 48-hour ultimatum was issued to Iran demanding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. After the deadline, no strike was launched, and instead, a "5-day postponement" was issued.
Of the seven instances, two were fully implemented, two were partially implemented, two were withdrawn, and one remains undecided. Market reactions are also evolving. After the 2019 halt to the crackdown, oil prices only fell by 3-5%. This time, with a five-day pause, oil prices dropped by 10.92%. The market's reaction to "pause" signals is amplifying because investors are increasingly pricing in the "threat of devaluation."
What does a $100 oil price mean?
There are three options after the 5-day window expires.
The first condition is reaching some kind of framework agreement. This isn't a comprehensive agreement, but more likely a temporary freeze of 30-60 days to buy time for subsequent negotiations. In this scenario, Brent crude might fall back to the $80-$90 range, close to Goldman Sachs' 2026 average price forecast of $85.
The second point is to extend the negotiations. After the five-day period expires, neither fighting nor signing a treaty will be undertaken; a new extension window will be opened. Oil prices will remain volatile between $95 and $110, and the war risk premium will neither be eliminated nor escalated.
Thirdly, a resumption of strikes coupled with a continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. According to CSIS's scenario model, if Iran expands its attacks on Gulf oil facilities after being hit, Brent crude could surge to $130-$150. Goldman Sachs' extreme scenario is even more aggressive: if the Hormuz blockade lasts for 60 days and Middle Eastern production is reduced by 2 million barrels per day for an extended period, oil prices could break through the historical high of $147 in 2008.
The current Brent crude oil price of $100 roughly implies a 30-40% probability of an agreement being reached. In other words, the market believes there's a 60-70% chance the situation won't fundamentally improve in five days. If negotiations break down, oil prices could still rise by $30-50.
The negotiations in 2015 lasted 35 months.
Trump's six core demands include zero uranium enrichment, dismantling nuclear facilities, a five-year freeze on missile development, ceasing funding for proxy militants, recognizing Israel's right to exist, and a US physical takeover of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile. These demands far exceed the framework of the 2015 JCPOA. That agreement only limited enrichment levels to 3.65%, allowed facilities to remain operational, and did not address missiles or proxy militants.
The 2015 JCPOA took 35 months from secret contacts with Oman in July 2012 to its final signing in Vienna. This included the rise of a pragmatic government following Rouhani's election, the establishment of confidence through the Geneva interim agreement, and 20 rounds of direct negotiations among the six parties (P5+1).
Where has progress stalled in 2026? Oman made an indirect message on February 6th, and then war broke out on February 28th. Only 45 days passed until the suspension on March 23rd, and even the two sides gave conflicting accounts of whether negotiations were taking place. The intermediary structure involved Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan relaying messages separately, not the direct multilateral negotiations of P5+1. The preconditions for negotiations (both sides acknowledging the existence of negotiations) were not met, whereas the path in 2015 involved building trust through secret channels for over a year before entering open negotiations.
If negotiations fail, what cards does Trump have left?
The military card is the most direct. Strikes against power plants are the immediate target of the five-day reprieve, and resuming strikes has the lowest operational threshold. More escalating options include the blockade or occupation of Kharg Island; according to Al Jazeera, discussions were already underway on March 20th. Kharg handles 90% of Iran's crude oil exports, approximately 1.3-1.6 million barrels per day (according to EIA data). Regarding nuclear facilities, Natanz was damaged in the first week of the conflict, and the highly enriched uranium at Fordow, which was attacked in June 2025, has not yet been transferred (according to FDD analysis). However, Iran's new facility at Pickaxe Mountain, located 100 meters below a granite mountain near Natanz, is beyond the reach of airstrikes. Currently, the US military has deployed two carrier strike groups, more than 16 surface ships, and over 100 aircraft in the Middle East (according to the Military Times), the largest deployment since the 2003 Iraq War.
On the economic front, Trump announced in January a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran. The primary targets are China (which accounts for over 90% of Iran's oil trade), as well as India, the UAE, and Turkey. Iran's current oil exports are still at 1.5-1.6 million barrels per day, generating approximately $140 million in daily revenue (according to Defense News data).
Cyber warfare is already underway. According to Foreign Policy, prior to the Epic Fury kinetic strike, the U.S. Cyber Command had already initiated "non-kinetic effects," crippling parts of Iran's communications and early warning systems.
However, Iran is not without countermeasures. According to the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), Iran could maintain a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for 1-6 months. The Strait of Hormuz handles 20 million barrels of crude oil and refined products daily, accounting for 20% of global oil consumption (according to EIA data), while Saudi Arabia and the UAE's pipeline bypass capacity is only 3.5-5.5 million barrels per day, leaving a shortfall of 14.5 million barrels per day. Iran still possesses approximately 1,500 ballistic missiles and 200 launchers (according to Israeli military estimates), while Hezbollah holds approximately 25,000 missiles (according to Israeli assessments).
This is the underlying game logic of the five-day window. Trump faces a credibility trap: if he attacks, oil prices could spiral out of control, putting pressure on the domestic economy. If he doesn't attack, the cycle of ultimatums and postponements will further weaken his pricing power over military threats. Iran's dilemma is symmetrical: if he talks, domestic hardliners won't agree. If he doesn't talk, the next target of strikes could be power plants and Kharg Island. The March 28th deadline is not the end, but the next twist in this trap.
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