Israeli media: The US plans to establish a one-month ceasefire.

According to a Odaily by Israel's Channel 12, the US may soon announce a one-month ceasefire in the Iran-Iraq war, a mechanism promoted by US Middle East envoys Witkov and Kushner. As of press time, no other authoritative media outlets have reported on this matter. Investinglive analyst Eamonn Sheridan stated that this news could signify a reduction in short-term geopolitical risks. The energy market's reaction aligns with the removal of some war risk premiums. The decline in oil prices reflects the energy market's continued high sensitivity to any signs of a possible de-escalation of regional tensions, even temporarily. While such a long ceasefire may not necessarily resolve a broader conflict, it suggests a potential reduction in hostilities in the short term, thereby reducing the risk of disruption to regional energy infrastructure and shipping routes. For traders, the key is that oil prices have consistently carried a significant risk premium associated with concerns about a broader escalation. Any report suggesting a possible formal pause in the conflict could trigger a rapid repricing in the market, especially given positions biased towards supply risk concerns. This situation appears to be exactly as described; however, the sustainability of this trend may depend on whether the report receives official confirmation and whether the proposed ceasefire mechanism gains clear support from all relevant parties. Currently, this news points to an ongoing process, rather than a completed agreement. Therefore, the market will continue to closely monitor subsequent developments, including official statements, remarks from Israeli and US officials, and any responses from the other side. (Jinshi)