Although the commercialization of quantum computers is not an immediate reality, the Ethereum Foundation is accelerating its response by releasing a long-term roadmap to defend the Ethereum (ETH) network, with a market capitalization of approximately $260 billion (about 389 trillion won), against "quantum threats." Amid growing concerns that "public key cryptography," the foundation of blockchain security, could be rendered ineffective, Ethereum has presented a timetable to transition to a "quantum-resistant" system through phased hard forks by 2029.
On the 25th (local time), the Foundation released a technology roadmap outlining how its developer organization should prepare for advancements in super-powerful computing. The Foundation's quantum team made clear that, assuming network transitions take years, "preparations must begin long before threats become visible." While the Foundation estimated that "cryptographically meaningful" levels of quantum computing could emerge within 8 to 12 years, it drew a line, stating that it is difficult to view actual danger as "imminent."
If public key cryptography is compromised, wallets, authentication, and consensus are simultaneously hit.
The core risk Ethereum is concerned about is the potential collapse of "public-key cryptography," which underpins the entire network operation, including proof of wallet ownership, transaction signing, validator authentication, and the consensus process. Concerns have been raised that if quantum computers advance sufficiently, it would theoretically be possible to rapidly estimate a private key from a public key, potentially making scenarios where attackers move others' assets a reality. This is considered not just a problem for Ethereum, but a structural vulnerability that could shake the very trust models of major blockchains, including Bitcoin (BTC).
While the Foundation did not conclude that the network is currently at risk, it emphasized that it would take a long time to 'bootstrap' the system. Accordingly, it stated that as of March, it is also preparing a development network to test some quantum-related functions.
Quantum computing has been added to institutional investors' 'risk checklist'.
The quantum threat is rapidly moving beyond being a hypothesis in the laboratory and becoming a variable in investment decisions. In the revised prospectus for the iShares Bitcoin Trust submitted in May, BlackRock listed quantum computing as an explicit risk factor. The fact that traditional financial institutions have specified related risks in disclosure documents demonstrates that the focus is shifting from the tech community to a "practical risk" for institutional investors.
The Ethereum Foundation’s launch of a dedicated institutional portal, 'pq.ethereum.org,' and its efforts to enhance accessibility through FAQs can be interpreted in the same context. It is assessed that the transition to 'quantum tolerance' is becoming a key item to verify during institutional due diligence, given that it is directly linked to the network's long-term sustainability.
4-Stage Hard Fork by 2029… 'Quantum Resistance' Extended to Layer 2
The broad framework proposed by the Foundation is a plan to gradually introduce a quantum-resistant cryptographic system through four hard forks by 2029. As for the initial stages, the 'I' fork involves requiring validators to prepare quantum-resistant public keys for emergency use, while the 'J' fork proposes measures to reduce the gas fee burden required for verifying quantum-resistant signatures. The industry also observes the possibility that these two stages will be included in the Hegota fork scheduled for the end of this year.
Furthermore, the 'L' fork focuses on increasing efficiency by compressing network state representations based on Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZK). The 'M' fork is a stage that extends the security scope to Layer 2, presenting a direction to protect the entire scalability ecosystem from 'quantum threats.' However, the Foundation projected that while Layer 1 upgrades could be completed by 2029, the migration to completely move the execution layer could take several more years thereafter.
The Difficulty of Transition is 'Data Explosion'... Reducing User Burden with Account Abstraction
Quantum-resistant cryptography is cited as a technical challenge because it can lead to an increase in on-chain data while enhancing security. The Foundation is reportedly considering approaches that significantly compress data, such as LeanMultisig, to mitigate the "data explosion" problem that may arise during this process. The key to the roadmap's implementation is expected to be how to strike a balance between enhanced security, maintaining decentralization, and controlling costs.
In terms of user experience, a direction was also presented to help users transition to a new cryptographic system 'naturally' without the risk of network downtime or asset loss by utilizing measures such as account abstraction (EIP-8141). Consequently, this roadmap demonstrates that the long-term variable of quantum computing has been elevated from an abstract discourse to a 'risk that must be prepared for' in the cryptocurrency market. If Ethereum (ETH) proactively establishes a standard, it is increasingly likely to serve as a benchmark for discussions on security transitions across the entire blockchain ecosystem, including Bitcoin (BTC).
🔎 Market Analysis
The Ethereum Foundation has addressed the possibility of public-key cryptography breakdown due to 'quantum computing' as an official risk and presented a shift in the security paradigm as a long-term goal.
The release of the roadmap is interpreted as a signal that lowers ecosystem trust (long-term stability) and barriers to institutional participation (security and compliance), rather than being a short-term price variable.
The fact that institutional investors have begun incorporating 'quantum risk' into their risk management criteria suggests the possibility that security upgrades will be included as a core checklist item in future network valuations.
💡 Strategic Points
- 'Phased transition' by 2029 is key: Wallets/custody/exchanges must prepare for a mixed (parallel) period rather than a one-time transition.
- The key challenge from the user's perspective is 'key migration': In future upgrade phases, the procedures (tools, guides, and deadlines) for moving assets with older address and signature schemes to the new system may become important.
- Projects/organizations should prepare a “PQC Support Plan” at the public disclosure level: The more proactively operational systems—such as roadmaps, transition testing, audits, and incident response—are established, the greater the potential to secure a trust advantage.
📘 Glossary
- Quantum Computing: A computational method with the potential to solve specific problems (e.g., prime factorization, discrete logarithms) very quickly, capable of challenging the security of current cryptographic systems.
- Public-key Cryptography: A method of performing signing and encryption using public-key/private-key pairs, which is essential for proving ownership of blockchain wallets.
- Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC): A next-generation cryptographic algorithm/signature system designed to be secure even against quantum computers.
- Hard Fork: A network update method incompatible with nodes that have not been upgraded due to changes in protocol rules.
TP AI Important Notes
The article has been summarized using a language model based on TokenPost.ai. Key points of the text may be omitted or inaccurate.
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