Bitcoin (BTC) prices have continued to fluctuate sharply this year. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has fallen by approximately 4% over the past week amid geopolitical tensions and unfavorable macroeconomic factors.
In this context, four on-chain indicators are signaling a warning. Glassnode 's Accumulation Trend Score is currently near 0. This suggests that wallet clusters are mostly dispensing or not very active.
The analytics firm stated that small and medium-sized wallets tend to sell off when the market is weak. This is in stark contrast to Q4 2024, when the buying trend across all wallet groups helped fuel a sustained period of significant growth.
"Strong participation from multiple wallet groups remains a prerequisite for a sustainable market recovery," the post added.
Bitcoin Trend Accumulation Points. Source: X/ GlassnodeFollow us on X to get the latest news as it happens.
Data from Santiment also reinforces this cautious view. The analytics platform states that Bitcoin whale activity has become “unprecedentedly quiet.”
Over the past week, the number of daily transfers exceeding $100,000 fell to just 6,417, the lowest level since September 2023. The number of transactions exceeding $1 million also decreased to 1,485, the lowest level since October 2024.
“Bitcoin whale activity has become historically quiet as influential figures continue to await clarity (literally) from the CLARITY Act, as well as the long-term end of the war,” Santiment Chia .
This post also emphasizes that this doesn't necessarily indicate a sharp market up or down. Instead, it reflects that smart money is currently in a similar position to retail investors, both hesitant to act given the ongoing policy and geopolitical uncertainties.
Weak infrastructure and slow network performance.
In addition, Bitcoin Vector also highlighted that the Fundamental Index of BTC continues to decline. The post describes the current situation as "stable but without support," rather than a healthy accumulation phase preparing for a new trend.
“As long as on-chain signals remain weak, the potential for price increases will depend more on new Capital inflows, stop-loss orders, or external factors, rather than on intrinsic strength. If the fundamentals don’t recover, this disparity will generally not lead to a sustainable market recovery in the medium term,” Bitcoin Vector explains .
CryptoQuant expert Maartunn also holds a similarly cautious view. He stated that the CryptoQuant Network Activity Index continues to decline, reflecting weakening transaction demand across the network.
With four indicators signaling caution, Bitcoin's path forward will likely depend on whether external factors can offset the on-chain weakness. Even when more wallet groups return to the market, data suggests that BTC 's recovery efforts will still face significant headwinds .
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