Solana 's Golden Cross faces a 16% supply pullback that could disrupt the price rally.

Solana (SOL) price has increased by more than 5% since March 24, 2024, reclaiming the $92 region amid a potential golden cross pattern beginning to appear on the 4-hour chart.

However, on-chain data reveals that a significant group of holder has been quietly selling off throughout the past month. The discrepancy between the positive technical signals and the holder ' selling action raises questions that the SOL price chart will need to answer in the near future.

The EMA Golden Cross forms when long-term investors continue to hold their positions.

On the 4-hour Solana chart, momentum is turning positive. The 20-period exponential moving Medium (20 EMA), an indicator that usually reflects recent price movements more closely, has crossed above the 200-period EMA. This crossover has contributed to SOL 5% increase since March 24, 2024.

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More importantly, the 50-period EMA is currently approaching the 200-period EMA. If this line crosses above it, a golden cross will appear – a signal that has repeatedly initiated strong price rallies in the past.

This positive technical factor is further supported by long-term holding behavior. The Net Position Change of holder (according to Glassnode) – which reflects the accumulation level of long-term wallets – increased from approximately 1,160,485 SOL on March 18, 2024, to 1,673,105 SOL as of March 24, 2024. In just 6 days, loyal holder increased their SOL holdings by 44%, indicating they are actively buying rather than selling.

This accumulation is occurring in parallel with signs of recovery in the ecosystem's fundamental indicators. DEX volume on Solana increased by 103% last week , reaching $138.4 billion in the week ending March 16, 2024 – the highest figure in a year. Long-term holders seem to be anticipating a recovery in network activity, even though the SOL price remains significantly lower than its January 2024 peak.

However, not all investor groups share this belief, and short-term holder are presenting a contrasting picture.

The Vai and Vai pattern appears when short-term retail investors sell off 16% of their holdings.

Although the EMA signals support an uptrend, the overall 4-hour price pattern from the beginning of March 2024 to the present is quite negative. A head and Vai pattern has formed, with the right Vai currently located near the $92 price level.

This model becomes even more noteworthy when combined with Glassnode's HODL Waves data, which analyzes each holder group based on holding time. Short-term holder (1-3 months) – the most active retail investors – held 14.68% of the total circulating SOL supply as of February 22, 2024. By March 24, 2024, this percentage had decreased to 12.33%, a loss of 2.35 percentage points in just one month. In terms of quantity, this group reduced its SOL holdings by 16% in the past month.

This is no longer simply profit-taking. The 16% reduction in supply due to short-term holder selling off their holdings shows that new investors are continuously distributing Token whenever there's an upward price surge. More notably, this coincides with the SOL recovery phase from its March 2024 Dip . As the price approached the right Vai , short-term holder took advantage of the opportunity to sell instead of continuing to hold in anticipation of a higher upward wave.

This selling pressure explains why each time the price reached the right Vai area, it encountered profit-taking pressure, forming a long candlestick shadow. Each time the price approached this area, it faced strong supply from holder who were not entirely confident in the recovery. The head and shoulders pattern continued to complete precisely because of the consistent selling pressure appearing in this price zone.

When long-term holder consistently buy while short-term holder sell, ultimately the price chart will determine which side prevails.

Solana price forecast and the $93 mark.

The tug-of-war between positive signals from the EMAs and negative price patterns is currently converging at a crucial area. If the 4-hour SOL closes above $93 (specifically $92.99), the price will break through the right Vai resistance zone, opening up an opportunity to head towards $97 – the peak of this pattern. This move would also confirm the golden cross signal, affirming that buyers are strongly in control.

However, the head and shoulders pattern appearing in a price rebound wave can still be completed, even though some individual indicators are giving positive signals. The golden cross helps increase momentum for the buyers, but it is not enough on its own to completely negate the downside risk from this pattern.

If SOL loses the $90 mark for an extended period, the key technical level to watch is $85, coinciding with the historically significant 0.618 retracement level. If the decline continues, the support zone at $84 will be crucial. If the price breaks below $84, the pattern will be triggered with a potential drop of approximately 12%, bringing SOL back to the $72 area.

Currently, the $93 level is the boundary between the possibility of SOL breaking through to $97 in the direction of a golden cross and the risk of plummeting to $72 when a head and Vai pattern forms.