Binance tests a common narrative about Bitcoin with a decade of market data.

A new report from Binance Research shows that the yields between Bitcoin (BTC) and crude oil are statistically independent, based on weekly data over 10 years.

This report analyzed 532 weekly data points from 2016 to 2026 using econometric methods, including the DCC-GARCH model and Granger causality testing.

A decade of data shows that Bitcoin is almost completely unrelated to oil prices.

Binance Chia its research sample into four different macroeconomic periods. Only during the period from 2020 to 2022, when interest rates were at 0% and aggressive monetary easing policies were implemented, did a positive correlation emerge between BTC and oil.

Even then, this correlation only explains 6.9% of Bitcoin's weekly profit fluctuations.

This correlation is primarily due to general liquidation conditions, rather than a direct causal link between the two asset classes.

In all remaining periods, the correlation coefficient between BTC and oil is almost zero. Neither asset exerts a causal influence on the other over a lag period of one to ten weeks.

The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is testing Bitcoin's resilience.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis from February to March 2026 is considered a real-world test . During this period, Brent crude oil prices surged by +46% due to disruptions in global supply.

During the same period, BTC also rose +15%, outperforming the Nasdaq (+1%) and gold (-3%).

During this crisis, BTC went through three phases: weak performance in the first 1-3 days, a sideways consolidation phase lasting up to day 14, and finally, an independent price increase from day 15 to day 24.

Net inflows into spot BTC ETFs totaled +$1.7 billion during this crisis period.

Oil prices are fluctuating wildly, with no clear trend.

According to the report , shocks from oil prices may increase short-term volatility in Bitcoin, but they do not determine the direction of BTC's returns. Institutional Capital flows through ETFs, spot purchases in the US, and accumulation through corporate treasuries are the main factors influencing BTC's trend.

A past example clarifies this point. Following the 2022 conflict between Russia and Ukraine, BTC surged by +24% in just four weeks before plummeting due to the bankruptcies of Terra/Luna and Three Arrows Capital, events related to the crypto market, completely unrelated to the energy market.