Deribit exchange processed $15 billion in BTC options expiring on Friday, coinciding with the Trump-Iran diplomatic deadline, as Bitcoin held steady around $70,900.
Approximately $15 billion worthof Bitcoin options contracts will expire on Friday on the Deribit Derivative exchange, representing nearly 40% of the total $36.5 billion in open BTC positions currently held on the exchange. Including Ethereum, the total value of contracts expiring on that day reaches approximately $17 billion, according to Trading Director Jean David Pequignot.
Notably, the expiration date coincides almost with the end of the five-day diplomatic window that President Donald Trump gave Iran before XEM attacks on its energy infrastructure.
According to Pequignot, it was the news that Trump postponed the attack that triggered Bitcoin's recovery back to the $71,000 region. The convergence of geopolitical events and large-scale Derivative expirations created a "local volatility break point in the term structure," a situation where the market had to simultaneously price in both financial and geopolitical risks.
However, options data on Deribit shows a phenomenon of "implied volatility compression" for both BTC and ETH, suggesting that traders are reducing their risk levels ahead of expiration. Pequignot believes the market is pricing in a more controlled settlement scenario rather than a sudden surge in volatility.
As maturities ease, the market seeks a new equilibrium.
The overall picture of the Derivative market also reflects the heat of this period. By Wednesday afternoon, total open positions in Bitcoin across 24 exchanges, including CME, Binance, OKX , and Bybit, reached $112 billion, an 8% increase in just one day, according to Coinglass . Bitcoin's 30-day volatility remained at 2.23%, significantly higher than the 0.88% Dip recorded before the September 2025 expiration, an event that subsequently triggered $19 billion in liquidations and pushed volatility above 2% for several weeks.
Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev predicts this settlement process will be "relatively orderly," but notes that the real question lies in the post-expiration phase: once option pressure is relieved, prices will find their own equilibrium and weekend trading activity could increase.
He praised Bitcoin's ability to hold around the $70,000 mark amid macroeconomic uncertainty, including geopolitical tensions, weakening stocks, and energy volatility, as a sign of solid spot demand and steadfast long-term investor confidence. As of Wednesday afternoon, Bitcoin was trading at $70,912, up 2.3% in 24 hours.
