For Ethereum's price to surpass $2,500, it needs to break through this "red circle".

Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading at $2,187, recovering within an ascending price channel after a slight dip from its March peak near $2,393. Two on-chain signals and a clear technical resistance zone are precisely determining what buyers need to overcome for ETH to reach $2,500.

Outflows from exchanges are positive. However, a valuation indicator signals caution, along with a price zone on the chart that previously led to ETH being rejected.

Ethereum withdrawals from exchanges have reached record levels, showing signs of accumulation.

The chart showing net exchange position changes from Glassnode tracks ETH across all exchanges from March 2nd to March 25th. The first half of March was quite mixed — small red bars at the beginning of the month gave way to green bars between March 8th and 13th, indicating ETH being deposited into exchanges — a common sign when retail investors prepare to sell.

Since March 14th, the trend has reversed sharply. Red bars, indicating net ETH outflows from exchanges, reappeared and surged in the last week of March.

The largest net outflows occurred around March 22nd and March 24-25th, reaching nearly -1.2 million ETH in a single day. When ETH is withdrawn from exchanges in such large quantities, it usually indicates that many people are accumulating at low prices, reducing the supply available for sale in the short term.

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However, the recent large outflows also reflect the market's high sensitivity to prices in this region. Such strong capital flows can easily lead to unexpected price fluctuations in either direction, up or down.

Is ETH entering an overvalued phase?

The NVT Signal (Network Value to Transactions) chart tracks data from February 19th to March 25th, 2026, measuring ETH market Capital relative to on-chain volume , similar to the network's price-to-reward ratio. When the NVT index increases, it means the price is rising faster than the economic activity on the blockchain supporting it.

In early February, this index was around 48. During March, NVT surged, peaking at nearly 64 around March 17th, then declined slightly before recovering to around 60 at the time of writing (March 25th). The price of Ethereum, shown by the black line , remained relatively stable between $2,100 and $2,300 throughout this period.

The worrying aspect is this divergence. Total on-chain transactions are not growing proportionally to the expansion of Capital capitalization. An increase in the NVT Signal doesn't necessarily mean a price drop. However, it implies that maintaining the current valuation requires even stronger network activity. If volume doesn't increase quickly enough, ETH will become increasingly expensive relative to its practical use on the blockchain.

The price of ETH is heading towards a clear target.

Ethereum's price is currently fluctuating around $2,186 — situated between the 23.6% Fibonacci level at $2,130 and the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $2,203. This Fibonacci range is measured from the cycle Dip at $2,023 to the most recent peak at $2,494. The 20-day EMA is currently at $2,145, just below the price and trending upwards, which is a short-term support signal. XEM details .

ETH is currently moving within a rising wedge pattern with a lower boundary around $2,080. This trend structure formed in late February, and the price has repeatedly tested both boundaries, holding firm until now.

The “red circle” on the chart points to the 78.6% Fibonacci level at $2,393 USD — this is also the resistance zone that previously caused ETH price to be rejected in mid-March. At this point, Ethereum surged to nearly $2,393 USD before quickly being sold off sharply back to $2,130 USD. For buyers, this is the final crucial resistance level before reaching the $2,500 USD target.

If ETH closes the 12-hour candle above $2,393, a breakout to $2,494 is possible, followed by a 1.236 extension at $2,605 and then a 1.5 extension at $2,730. These levels coincide with the upper edge of the ascending price channel . Once the 0.618 or 0.786 Fibonacci levels are converted into support, the price could rebound and break out of the current pattern.

The opposite scenario, which would invalidate the uptrend, would occur if ETH closes the day below the lower boundary of the ascending channel at $2,023. If this level is lost, the entire bullish structure formed since the end of February will be broken, with the next support levels around $1,838 or $1,929.