Despite Bitcoin (BTC)'s recent sharp decline, analysis suggests that the market narrative of "entering a bear market" is exaggerated. Technical analyst Crypto Patel characterized the current drop as a "temporary withdrawal of liquidity," lending weight to the possibility of a full-scale bullish reversal.
In February of this year, Bitcoin fell to approximately $60,000 (about 90.54 million won), plunging about 45% from its all-time high of $126,000 recorded in October 2025. This led to widespread concerns in the market about entering a bear market, but Crypto Patel pointed out that such an interpretation was premature. He explained that the very situation in which many investors are waiting for a downturn based on the 'four-year cycle theory' could actually be the opposite signal.
"Bearing $76,000 nullifies bear market"
Crypto Patel analyzed that if Bitcoin closes the week above $76,000 (approximately 114.68 million KRW), the current decline corresponds to an 'expanded fiat deviation.' This is explained as a pattern that has appeared at every major cycle bottom in the past, trapping investors who took bearish positions.
He added that if this level is broken, it could be interpreted as a signal that the market is preparing for a full-scale upward reversal. In other words, this means that the current decline is highly likely to be a short-term process of absorbing liquidity rather than a structural collapse.
A completely different market from 2018 and 2022
Crypto Patel also drew a line against the view that simply compares the current cycle to the past, such as 2018 or 2022. He emphasized that in 2018, there were no spot ETFs, no participation by sovereign wealth funds, no corporate holdings of Bitcoin, and no moves toward strategic stockpiling at the national level.
It was pointed out that in 2022 as well, 'structural failures,' such as the Luna incident, the collapse of FTX, and the bankruptcies of Celsius and Three Arrows Capital, were the core causes of the market collapse. On the other hand, the supply on exchanges is currently decreasing to its lowest level in years, while institutional capital inflows are actually on the rise. Furthermore, it was analyzed that the supply shock following the halving has not yet been fully reflected in prices.
$200,000 Scenario if Breaking $98,000
Crypto Patel additionally suggested $98,000 (approximately 147.88 million KRW) as a key resistance level. The explanation is that if this price level is broken on a weekly basis, the bear market scenario will be completely nullified, and a strong uptrend will be confirmed.
According to his forecast, if the market surpasses that level, "fear-driven chasing" will be triggered, potentially leading to a rise to $150,000 without a correction. He further predicted that there is also a possibility of reaching $200,000 in this cycle.
Ultimately, the analysis suggests that whether this decline represents a structural collapse or a 'final shake-up' before a rally depends on whether key price levels are broken through. The market is expected to once again gauge its direction based on two turning points: $76,000 and $98,000.
🔎 Market Analysis
Analysis suggests that the recent decline is more of a 'liquidity withdrawal' than a structural collapse.
Many bearish expectations could actually act as the opposite signal.
The key break-even points are $76,000 and $98,000
💡 Strategic Points
Settling at the weekly close of $76,000 is an early signal of a bullish reversal.
Possibility of a strong trend reversal and FOMO rally if $98,000 is broken
Inflow of institutional funds and reduced supply on the exchange are grounds for a mid-to-long-term rally.
📘 Glossary
Liquidity Recovery: The process by which large investors shake up the price before accumulation to secure volume.
Expanded Fiat Discrepancy: A phenomenon where prices diverge excessively from fundamentals and then return to their original state.
FOMO: The psychology of jumping into buying late in a bull market
💡 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q. Has Bitcoin entered a bear market now?
Q. Why do you think this cycle is different from the past?
Q. How far is the potential for future growth?
TP AI Important Notes
The article has been summarized using a language model based on TokenPost.ai. Key points of the text may be omitted or inaccurate.
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