Polymarket's probability that "the U.S. Department of Homeland Security shutdown will last more than 60 days" has risen to 75%, a 37% increase in 24 hours.

According to Mars Finance, the US House of Representatives has passed a temporary Homeland Security funding bill aimed at ending the government shutdown and has sent it to the Senate. Polymarket's probability of a Department of Homeland Security shutdown lasting more than 48 days has risen to 92%, up 31% in 24 hours; the probability of a shutdown lasting more than 52 days has risen to 54%, up 12% in 24 hours; and the probability of a shutdown lasting more than 60 days has risen to 75%, up 37% in 24 hours. As of now, the contract trading volume for this event has exceeded $1.1 million. The bill reportedly provides each agency under the Department of Homeland Security with funding at current levels until May 22, representing the latest attempt to end the partial government shutdown that began on February 14. The bill passed the House with 213 votes in favor and 203 against, with three Democratic members voting in favor and the rest being Republicans. However, the bill is not expected to pass the Senate, potentially prolonging the partial government shutdown deadlock. They rejected the Senate version of the funding agreement before passing the House version. U.S. House Speaker Boris Johnson said Republicans would not participate in any measures to reopen borders or halt immigration enforcement.