Adam's Weekly Markets I don't know how you feel, but it is always bizarre to see world leaders broadcasting war situations on social media. The market rebounded strongly on Monday after Trump posted that a ceasefire was underway, but gave back all its gains as Iran flatly denied the claim. The S&P 500 closed at 6,369 on Friday, marking its fifth consecutive week of decline and hitting a seven-month low. The Dow Jones Index also entered a correction phase, joining the Nasdaq and Russell 2000. The MAG7 saw its market capitalization evaporate by as much as $850 billion in just one week. Brent crude closed at $112.57 after a crazy roller coaster ride. It fell 11% on Monday due to ceasefire expectations, but struggled to climb back above $108 on Thursday. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and while the risk premium is already somewhat priced in, there is still potential for oil prices to rise further. Macroeconomic conditions are rapidly deteriorating. The OECD raised its forecast for U.S. inflation to 4.2%, 150 basis points higher than the Fed's own estimate of 2.7%. CME FedWatch predicted a 52% probability of a rate hike by the end of the year for the first time in history. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.41%, marking its highest level since July 2025. This is compounded by oil-driven inflation that the Fed cannot resolve with rate cuts, a labor market too strong to justify accommodative policies, and growth forecasts that are being revised downward every week. Tech stocks took a hit from multiple angles. Micron plunged 15% in a single week, despite posting record-high quarterly earnings, following Google's announcement of its TurboQuant algorithm (which claims to reduce LLM memory requirements by six times). Meta fell 11% as a $375 million child safety ruling combined with a general risk-averse market. Oracle has plummeted more than 50% from its September high. Trump's five-day grace period for striking Iran's energy infrastructure ends today. Depending on whether the bomb drops first or diplomats step in first, Monday's opening could see a 3–5% gap in either direction. Next week will also be very exciting. Influential news from the U.S. and major central banks is waiting on almost every trading day. Friday is packed with the release of the Non-Farm Employment (NFP) data and a speech by Chairman Powell; if wages remain high while employment data comes out weak, talk of a recession will instantly shift from mere background noise to front-page headlines. + The original also covers the S&P 500 (downward trend) and Crypto (TAO issues, HYPE, BTC direction) as separate subtopics.