The market is currently in a phase of macroeconomic repricing driven by geopolitics. Escalating tensions related to Iran are increasing uncertainty regarding energy supply, inflation paths, and the global growth outlook. While the market was previously trading on expectations of more accommodative policies, the pace of interest rate cuts is being reassessed as the risk of spillover effects from the conflict rises, and a more hawkish policy path is being gradually priced in.
Based on current pricing, the market still tends to view this shock as a temporary inflationary disturbance, implicitly assuming that the impact on energy and shipping is relatively manageable and will ease within a reasonable timeframe. However, as risks continue to accumulate, the correlation between energy, interest rates, and risk appetite is strengthening, and the macroeconomic narrative is shifting from a "short-term inflationary shock" to a "potential growth shock." In this process, Bitcoin's performance is beginning to exhibit structural characteristics different from traditional assets.
Inflation shocks dominate pricing: Energy and interest rates reshape the performance of risk assets.
In the first phase of this shock, the core driver remains the inflationary pressure from rising oil prices. Higher Brent crude oil prices are pushing up inflation expectations and reinforcing tighter financial conditions, putting downward pressure on risk assets. During this phase, neither stocks nor Bitcoin can completely avoid adjustment pressures.
However, compared to traditional risky assets, Bitcoin possesses a key difference: its price has already experienced a significant decline, limiting potential passive selling pressure in the market. This "positional advantage" makes it more resilient to the same macroeconomic shocks. Simultaneously, in a high oil price environment, real interest rates remain high, increasing the opportunity cost of gold, while Bitcoin lacks physical holding costs, thus gradually gaining an advantage in relative comparison.
As the shock continues, the market may enter a second phase, gradually shifting from inflation concerns to growth concerns. Weakness in industrial commodities such as copper begins to reflect suppressed demand and a marginal weakening of global growth expectations. In this phase, the simple logic of inflation will no longer be sufficient to explain market movements, and the macroeconomic pricing framework begins to change.
From growth concerns to policy responses: Liquidity expectations may become a key variable.
If the shock continues, the market will likely enter the third stage, namely the policy response stage. When growth pressures increase and financial conditions continue to tighten, policymakers often intervene through fiscal or monetary means, including price controls, subsidies, or broader liquidity injections.
The key change at this stage is that market pricing will shift from "inflation-driven" to "liquidity expectation-driven." Historical experience shows that in an environment of renewed liquidity release, Bitcoin often benefits from its non-sovereign asset attributes and exhibits greater resilience.
Meanwhile, the structure of global capital flows is also changing. Since the freezing of Russian central bank reserves, market confidence in the "neutrality" of reserve assets has been shaken, and resource-exporting countries are adjusting their asset allocation structures, gradually shifting from US Treasury bonds and stocks to gold and other assets. This change has compressed global liquidity space and pushed up long-term interest rates, making the macroeconomic environment more complex. In this context, Bitcoin's relative performance depends not only on risk appetite but also on its position in the liquidity cycle. Once the market begins to price in expectations of policy easing, Bitcoin's relative advantage may be further strengthened.
Overall, the evolution of this round of macroeconomic shocks is gradually transitioning from an "oil price-driven inflationary shock" to a "growth shock under energy constraints," and may eventually enter a "liquidity phase dominated by policy intervention." During this process, traditional assets face dual pressures from interest rates and growth, while Bitcoin, having already undergone a certain degree of price adjustment and possessing greater sensitivity to liquidity, is demonstrating relative resilience.
For investors, the key at this stage is not the short-term volatility itself, but rather recognizing the shift in the macroeconomic narrative. Once the market shifts from an inflation-driven logic to a liquidity-driven logic, Bitcoin may transform from a passively pressured asset into a relative beneficiary in the new round of pricing.
The above viewpoints are from BIT on Target. Contact us to obtain the full BIT on Target report.
Disclaimer: Investing in the market involves risks; please exercise caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can be extremely risky and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of your personal circumstances and consultation with a financial professional. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.
