Dogecoin (DOGE) has been hovering around $0.091 recently, seemingly uneventful, but there is a surprising pattern behind it.
A technical report from crypto analytics firm Bitcoinsensus points out that Dogecoin is repeating the structure of the previous two supercycles, which saw gains of 5800% and 21000% respectively.
📈 Three cycles, one script
Bitcoinsensus divides Dogecoin's market cycle into three phases: the first phase saw a price increase of over 5800%, the second phase saw an increase of up to 21000%, and the third phase, which is currently underway, has a strikingly similar structure to the previous two.
The three cycles share a common characteristic: gradual accumulation → explosive rise → significant correction , and then the next round begins.
The current cycle high is near $0.70 , after which it pulled back to the $0.09–$0.10 range, and is currently in this “accumulation phase”.
📊 A key signal: The lows are getting higher and higher.
Another noteworthy pattern across the three cycles is that the cyclical lows gradually rise . The bottom of the first cycle was around $0.000020, the bottom of the second cycle was around $0.00070, and the low of the third cycle was above $0.09, successfully holding above that level.
This "rising bottom" structure indicates that buyer confidence is increasing and the number of participants is constantly expanding as each cycle progresses. Each pullback low is higher than the previous high.
🔍 AnAn Data: Traders are "actively accumulating" data.
AnAn's data also confirms this: among experienced traders, the ratio of long to short positions has significantly increased, with not only the number of participants rising but also the size of their positions expanding. This means that many traders are not reacting passively but are actively positioning themselves at current price levels.
Of course, this kind of one-sided position can also easily cause trading congestion, and there may be a short-term pullback, but structurally speaking, this is a "well-thought-out strategy" rather than chasing highs and selling lows.
📉 Technical Analysis: Consolidation is nearing its end, a breakout is imminent.
Current technical indicators also show typical signs of a potential trend reversal: the RSI is around 42 , in the neutral zone; the MACD momentum is weak; the ADX is around 15 , showing no clear trend; and the Bollinger Bands have contracted significantly, with the upper band at $0.10 and the lower band at $0.09. Historical experience shows that extreme contraction of the Bollinger Bands is often accompanied by increased volatility .
The direction is crucial: if it breaks through $0.10 , it may move towards $0.15 ; if it falls below $0.09 , it may fall further.
🐳 ETF Update: Institutions are still observing.
Regarding the Grayscale Dogecoin ETF, daily net inflows are zero , and total net assets remain around $9.12 million . The lack of significant institutional inflows suggests that large funds are still waiting for a signal.
Analyst Opinion: This is what market analyst Vuori Trading, from the "Generation Buy Zone" perspective, bluntly stated:
"Dogecoin is currently in the so-called 'generation buy zone,' and there's no reason to say that this Dogecoin can't reach more than $10 in this cycle."
Of course, the $10 target sounds crazy, so let's see how Dogecoin rises to $1 first.
