There are approximately 650,000 bitcoins priced between $70,000 and $72,000 – these were bought by investors who are now waiting to recoup their investment. This oversupply is an obstacle that bitcoin must overcome if it wants to achieve a genuine recovery in March.
This is a winning streak that has not been seen since 2018.
Bitcoin closed up 2% in March, ending a five-month losing streak. This was the longest losing streak since 2018, and data from CoinGlass confirms that the downtrend has ended.
As of the April opening bell, Bitcoin closed at approximately $68,250, and traders are closely watching whether this upward momentum will continue or subside.
The last time Bitcoin experienced a six-month consecutive decline was from 2018 to early 2019. This was followed by a sharp rebound—Bitcoin rose by over 300% in the next five months.
This is a large dose of hopim.
After five consecutive months of decline, Bitcoin finally saw its first monthly gain.
Hopefully this isn't an April Fool's joke. pic.twitter.com/dUAw1Yb4aX
— Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) April 1, 2026
Some analysts believe that event can serve as a rough blueprint for future trends. Analyst Ash Crypto stated that the March closing price gave X "great hope," noting that this potential shift in momentum suggests a sustained recovery may have already begun.
Trader Satoshi Flipper pointed out on the X forum that after Bitcoin's last six-month consecutive decline, it began to rise again over the next five months. While this historical comparison is noteworthy, it is based solely on a precedent.
After Bitcoin experienced a six-month consecutive decline, it subsequently rose for the next five months!
After five consecutive months of sharp declines in Bitcoin, what will the next five months look like? pic.twitter.com/DviQHfNell
— Satoshi Flipper (@SatoshiFlipper) April 1, 2026
The $70,000 range is the real test.
The $70,000 to $72,000 range is more than just a round number. It's the intersection of the 50-day simple moving average, the 50-day exponential moving average, and the cost basis for a large number of investors.
Glassnode data shows that approximately 650,000 bitcoins were bought within this price range—meaning that a large number of holders are at a loss and are likely to sell their bitcoins once they recoup their losses.
A breakout above this area could open the door to $76,000, and potentially even further to $80,000. Trader Sheldon Diedericks stated on the X forum that Bitcoin could potentially rise to $83,000 on the monthly chart—a level that provided support in April 2025 and is close to the 200-day exponential moving average.
If the upward trend stalls, bottoming levels become particularly important. The 200-week exponential moving average is around $68,300—slightly below Bitcoin's current trading price. Further down, $59,400 is the 200-week simple moving average, while around $54,000 represents Bitcoin's actual price and is considered a potential bear market bottom, thus receiving close attention.
The results in April were mixed.
The problem is that April's price action doesn't always mirror March's. Based on data since 2013, Bitcoin closed higher in April in 8 out of the past 13 years, with an average return of approximately 12%. However, in the same 13 years, April's price action was the opposite of March's in 9 out of 13 years.
Recently, in three out of the four years from 2021 to 2024, Bitcoin closed higher in March but then fell in April.
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