8.4 Million Bitcoins Currently at a Loss Looking at this week's on-chain data, the current market structure bears a striking resemblance to the situation just before the massive crash in 2022. Those who bought between $80k and $126k are all currently experiencing losses, and I suspect the short-term direction will be determined by the choices they make going forward. If they sell -> Selling pressure with every rebound If they hold -> Gradually digesting over time Neither is an easy choice. In terms of numbers: Bitcoins at a loss: Approximately 8.4 million Daily stop-loss volume by long-term holders: $200 million Bottom signal baseline: Cooling below $25 million per day We are still a long way from that baseline. It is an ongoing process, not the end. ----- There are some hopeful signs, though. Spot buying on Coinbase has quietly turned positive. This means that someone has started picking up shares in a market that was only selling throughout January and February. Dealers' gamma positions have also returned to supportive territory. It is a small change, but the structure is shifting little by little. However, there is one zone we need to be careful about. If it drops below $68k, dealers will be structurally forced to sell -> hedging volumes will flood in, potentially leading to a retest of $60k. Realized volatility is 38%, implied volatility is 49%. The 11-point difference tells us one thing: The market appears quiet, but participants are still afraid of a decline. This is a zone where even a small shock can cause significant turmoil. In conclusion, I believe we are currently in a redistribution phase, neither a rebound nor a collapse. (The process of volume purchased above $80k passing into new hands.) Two signals that this is being completed: 1. LTH stop-losses cooling to below $25 million per day. 2. Spot buying pressure continuously expanding. Until both are confirmed, I think it would be more reasonable to observe or split buy rather than taking overly aggressive positions.

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