1. Looking at TGA account balances and bank reserves, liquidity tightening may accelerate starting from April 10. Specifically: April 10-20 will be the peak of liquidity drain, from April 20 to end of April TGA balance will start to drop from the peak, and by early May, the draining basically ends and liquidity starts to return. 2. From a war perspective, Trump said the fighting may last another 2-3 weeks, which happens to align perfectly with this liquidity drain/return cycle. 3. From a technical analysis standpoint, BTC is still struggling around the 66k zone, but the momentum is shifting lower and looking weak. Evidence supporting a bearish bias includes: - Dropping to the 66k zone, which is the 0.618 retracement support of the whole move up from 60k to 76k; the focus is on the lower part of the range. - 1D RSI is struggling below the midline, 1D MACD is underwater and red. - Price broke the diagonal trendline; the move up from 64939 to 69286 was a zigzag, and it might develop into a double zigzag (see Chart 2). Looking at the timeline, May 3rd, 4th, and 5th are a US stock market vacuum period; stocks only reopen on the 6th, and right after that we’ll see a major TGA liquidity drain and a big drop in bank reserves. So, if there’s no war-related surprise, the outlook for next week could be pump then dump: Monday and Tuesday might be okay, but starting Wednesday, action could turn bearish. Note: This view is based on current evidence. Trump could always pull a wild card and mess up the rhythm (which is par for the course).