More money traded ≠ smarter market
I agree bigger markets are usually better. But high volume alone doesn't mean it's a good thing.
@Polymarket's 2024 election market had massive volume with one dude running 4 accounts, big enough to raise manipulation questions.
Size helps.
But quality of flow matters more imo.
Parity
@PredictParity
03-31
Does more volume make prediction markets more accurate?
Not really.
Looking at 22,527 markets across Kalshi and Polymarket accuracy doesn’t scale linearly with volume.
One clear pattern:
Very high volume markets ($1M+) are well calibrated on both platforms.
*methodology
•
same thought broski
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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