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ToggleUS President Trump made another move on Truth Social last night (4th): "Remember when I gave Iran ten days to see if they could reach an agreement or open the Strait of Hormuz? Now time is running out. In 48 hours, hell will befall them. Glory to God."
If calculated based on the posting time (April 4th, Taiwan time), the cutoff window falls around 9 PM Taiwan time on April 6th (Monday).
Behind this threat lies a political calculation flowing within the White House. Two White House advisors and two Republican members of Congress told TIME magazine that Trump is worried that if the conflict with Iran drags on until the end of the year, it will hurt the Republican House of Representatives chances in the midterm elections, which have been described in some internal assessments as "almost lost."
With the countdown to the ultimatum underway and anxiety over a collapsing election campaign, Trump has few options left.
Negotiation Channels: Deadlock, Mediation, and Three Preconditions
The diplomatic situation is also not optimistic. This round of communication via the Islamabad (Pakistan's capital) , led by US Vice President Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf and relayed through Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir, is currently described by multiple sources as having reached a stalemate.
US media quoted a mediator as saying that Iran has indicated it does not wish to meet with the US in Islamabad and considers the conditions proposed by the US unacceptable.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi immediately refuted this on the X platform, stating, "Tehran has never refused to go to Islamabad for consultations," and accused US media of misinterpreting Iran's position. He also expressed gratitude for Pakistan's mediation efforts. With both sides giving conflicting public narratives, the true picture of the current negotiations becomes even more difficult to discern.
Following the blockade of the Islamabad pipeline, Turkey and Egypt actively intervened, pushing for a new round of talks to be held in Doha, the capital of Qatar, or Istanbul. However, Iran's proposed ceasefire preconditions included three points: the United States paying war reparations, withdrawing its military bases in the Middle East, and providing written guarantees that it would not launch attacks against Iran again.
There are currently no indications that the US is willing to accept these three conditions.
Zarif: Seeking peace in the name of "victory"
Iranian military general Ali Abdullahhi directly responded to Trump's post, calling it a "helpless, tense, unbalanced and stupid action," showing that Tehran has not backed down on tough diplomatic language.
But while the Iranian military was issuing a high-profile rebuttal, another voice quietly emerged from within Tehran. Former Iranian Foreign Minister and current Vice President Zarif published an article in the journal Foreign Affairs on April 3, outlining a concrete roadmap: Iran should declare the conflict a "victory" to the outside world, while proposing a comprehensive solution of "limiting its nuclear program + reopening the Strait of Hormuz" in exchange for "the lifting of all sanctions + the US-Iran non-aggression pact."
Whether Zarif's appeal represents the growing strength of the negotiating faction within Tehran remains to be seen, but the timing of his public statement is quite significant.
Bitcoin fluctuates around $67,000
The crypto market saw little movement over the weekend, with Bitcoin currently trading at $67,156, showing no clear price action.
Market research firm Banklesstimes points out that "with the deadline for Trump's threats against Iran approaching and the odds of Democrats overturning the Senate rising," two risk factors are simultaneously limiting the upside potential of the crypto market. If the Strait of Hormuz blockade situation does not improve, the impact on oil prices will directly translate into global risk aversion, and Bitcoin may find it difficult to remain unaffected.
