挺不错的分析。Local Vol是藏身于Black Scholes隐含波动率之下的确定性时空波动率的分布地图，是最早的曲面模型。

看到 Jeff 的推文 (https://x.com/JeffLia12309881/status/2040784712273433083?s=20…)，與 AI 搏擊了幾回，沿用了上一次山體的例子，我非常喜歡這解釋。
◾️當標的價格 F 變了，波動率微笑到底是怎麼跟著動的？
解釋看下圖。
實用五句：
1. implied vol 不是 local vol 本人，而是把 local vol 壓縮後的報價。
2. ATM/短端附近，implied 與

Wisdom_Yang

Twitter

Pretty good analysis. Local Vol is a distribution map of deterministic spatiotemporal volatility hidden beneath Black-Scholes implied volatility, and it is the earliest surface model.

MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor asserts that Bitcoin has won the global narrative war, specifically naming BIP- […]
The article, "Michael Saylor Warns BIP-110 is the Biggest Threat to Bitcoin; Four-Year Cycle is Dead, Institutional Capital is the Real Protagonist," was first published on BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain ABMedia media.

Michael Saylor warns that BIP-110 is the biggest threat to Bitcoin; the four-year cycle is dead, and institutional capital is the real protagonist.

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Editor's Note: This article argues that what truly drives oil prices is not just whether the conflict ends, but "when the tipping point will be crossed."

In the nearly four-week-long conflict with Iran, the oil market is experiencing a classic case of "time-based pricing." The release of strategic reserves has delayed the impact but cannot eliminate the supply gap; disruptions to tanker transport and delayed production recovery are causing inventory pressure to accumulate into the future. Once the critical mid-April mark is passed, the price mechanism will shift from "buffered volatility" to "gap-driven repricing."

More importantly, the game structure itself is also changing. The conflict is no longer characterized by "escalation followed by deterioration..."