Market sentiment has clearly improved in the past 24 hours. With the US and Iran reaching a two-week temporary ceasefire, geopolitical risks have rapidly eased, leading to a collective rebound in risk assets. BTC briefly surged to $72,700 before slightly retreating to around $71,000; ETH also strengthened, regaining the $2,200 level, and altcoins also generally rose, shifting the overall atmosphere from panic to cautious optimism. There are also new changes in funding. Institutions are starting to re-enter the market, with clearer signals of traditional financial institutions entering; coupled with the decline in oil prices, market pressure has eased. However, it should be noted that there are still slight outflows from ETFs, indicating that this wave is more about sentiment recovery than a trend reversal, and short-term fluctuations are still expected.
In this environment, it's quite normal for Bitcoin to experience a short-term rebound, and it's even possible that it could trigger a wave of altcoin price movements.
Let's return to Bitcoin itself. (Yesterday's article also discussed BTC future path) Followin
As mentioned earlier, this period presents an opportunity to consider short-term long. Looking at the candlestick chart, the target of this rebound is likely to be near the previous high, around 75,000. If sentiment heats up further, a push towards 78,000 is not entirely impossible.
But there's a premise here—we're long, not betting that it will definitely break through.
Therefore, a more conservative approach is to take profits at previous highs, such as around 74,000. Then, wait for market activity to cool down before looking for opportunities to gradually establish short positions at higher levels.
As for further upward movement, I personally think there's not much room for growth. The reason is simple: there wasn't actually a significant drop before this round.
In contrast to last year's situation, where the price plummeted from a high point, leaving ample room for a subsequent rebound, this time the overall decline from 68,000 to now has been limited. The price was around that level when the rally ended, indicating that the shares haven't been fully shaken out.
In other words, if the bottom is not solid enough, the rebound height is usually limited.
Looking at other indicators, the current price isn't exactly cheap. A true bottom is often accompanied by a clear "undervaluation" situation, but this signal has now been largely corrected.
If the price goes up further, or even enters a relatively high range, it would actually be more like providing an opportunity for short sellers.
Therefore, the current position can be understood as slightly high, but still in the process of rebounding.
The operation is simple: it's fine to long in the short term following the sentiment, but don't be too aggressive, and take profits when you've made enough.
From an overall structural perspective, the downward trend is still intact, and this rebound is more like a pullback within the overall pattern than a complete reversal.
It would be more comfortable to wait until the price gradually approaches the resistance levels of 75,000 and 78,000 before considering short.
Overall, this surge is more like giving you "better shorting opportunities" than telling you that a new market trend has begun.
Regarding opportunities, there are several areas worth focusing on:
First, there's AI+DePIN , like the $TAO subnet project. These projects have decent revenue but low valuations; the core issue is simply that they're "unavailable." Once they're listed on major exchanges, their valuations have significant room for recovery, making them a good opportunity to buy in.
Secondly, in the RWA sector , $ONDO is innovating with perpetual contracts, allowing users to directly use tokenized stocks as margin, resulting in higher capital utilization – a significant advantage. In the short term, the market is likely to remain range-bound, with a pullback to around 0.24 offering better value.
However, the risks should not be ignored:
The current problem with $AAVE is not its price, but rather that its "foundation is crumbling." The successive exits of developers, governance personnel, and risk controllers—the three core elements—essentially indicate a declining safety margin. The biggest fear in DeFi is systemic instability; once a problem arises, it could lead to systemic risk.
The $WLFI model is essentially the same old trick: a high-leverage cycle of collateralization, borrowing, and re-collateralization. It works fine when the market is good, but once it falls, it can easily trigger a chain reaction of liquidations, ultimately turning into a death spiral. These types of projects profit from trend fluctuations but bear significant structural risks.
The market is recovering, but hasn't reversed yet; opportunities exist, but there's significant divergence. For short-term trading, focus on timing and avoid chasing highs; for medium-term trading, choose sectors and prioritize fundamental logic; avoid high-risk stocks if possible.
Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; caution is advised when entering the market. This is just my personal opinion, not advice, and is for sharing purposes only.
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