According to BlockBeats, on April 15th, AXIOS reported that two US officials stated that US-Iran negotiators made progress in their talks on Tuesday, moving towards a framework agreement to end the war. One US official stated that Trump's negotiating team (Vice President Vance, Middle East envoy Witkov, and Trump senior advisor Kushner) continued to speak with Iran and mediators and exchange draft agreements, and were "close to their goal." A third official said, "We want an agreement, and some people in Iran want one too. The key is getting the entire Iranian government to agree." Sources indicated that if a framework agreement is reached, the ceasefire needs to be extended to negotiate details. "The details are complex and cannot be finalized in two days," one official said. Another official stated that the US has not yet formally agreed to extend the ceasefire, and the two sides are still in continuous contact.
According to PolyBeats , on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the "time point when the US and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement" is 27% before April 22, 42% before April 30, and 60% before May 31.
