Carolina Hurricanes vs. Ottawa Senators 2026 NHL Stanley Cup playoffs preview

The NHL's playoff format, quite deliberately, is set up for series repeats. In some instances, that's a good thing; imagine a world in which Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin didn't spend their primes battling it out each spring. In other instances -- and this where we glance in the direction of Los Angeles and Edmonton -- it is, perhaps, less of a good thing. Sometimes, though, a fresh matchup breaks through. That's what we're getting from the Carolina Hurricanes and Ottawa Senators: Two teams that have never met in the postseason. Let's start some rivalries, shall we? Carolina has won five straight first-round series, the longest streak in the NHL. That shouldn't come as a huge shock given how the Hurricanes entered many of those series: as sizable favorites. Last year, they had a 67-percent chance to knock out the Devils, and the year before that, it was 80 percent against the Islanders. This year is different; these Senators are no joke as one of the few teams that can go pound-for-pound against Carolina's stingy possession game. The Hurricanes are still rightly favored as the East's No. 1 seed, but it's a lot closer than some might expect for a dance with the second wild-card team. The Senators have all the makings of a dark-horse team coming together at the right time. This is no typical wild card, and that could give this matchup some real drama. There are two ways to look at this by the numbers: The Hurricanes are a stronger version of the Senators, or the Senators are on track to become the next Hurricanes. Both teams have solid back end foundations -- the Canes come into this series with a plus-24 Defensive Rating, while the Sens are even higher at a plus-31. Carolina has been the better shot suppressor, especially since the Olympic break. But both teams are top-10 in xG suppression over that time. The Canes are stingy, but Ottawa has had more favorable goaltending for support. That's been true in short-handed situations, too. The Senators have given up slightly more shots and scoring chances, but have only allowed 5.81 goals per 60. Carolina has been the better defensive team, and has had pretty steady goaltending, just not to the same degree. What really separates them is offense: With 27 goals between their respective ratings. Roster strength and on-ice differences help explain that. The Canes have the deeper forward group, and despite both sitting top-five in xG since the Olympics, Carolina scores more. But based on the shot volume and quality the Canes roll out, they should have a lot more scoring. So should the Sens. Despite all that they create, both teams struggle to convert on their chances. Carolina, at least, does on the power play; its power play is top-five in scoring this year, and has been especially hot down the stretch. The Senators aren't too far back, but still don't have enough scoring to show for all of their scoring chance efforts. Does Ottawa have the arsenal to beat Carolina at its own game? The narrative that follows the Hurricanes is based, largely, on truth. In the regular season, they dominate the puck, choke out their opponents, create tons of chances and score enough goals to live at the top of the standings. When someone says "Hurricanes hockey," that's what they mean. This season, they've lived up to their reputation. At five-on-five, the Hurricanes are first in the league in expected goals for and eighth in expected goals against, putting them behind only Colorado in overall expected goal share. They're second in shots for and shots against, putting them in second place in overall shot share. And they allow just 45 attempts per 60, fewest in the league by about six. In terms of actual goals, they're good enough (2.77 per 60, ninth in the NHL). In terms of goaltending ... we'll get to that later. "Hurricanes hockey," as a bit of shorthand, also has come to have something of a negative connotation, at least as it relates to the Stanley Cup playoffs. For all of their gifts, they've spent the last several years getting tripped up by a combo of opposing goaltenders who can weather the barrage and, at least compared to high-end contenders, a relative lack of elite talent at the top of the roster. In a short series, it's easier for the Aleksander Barkovs of the world to negate the soundest of processes. As such, if the Hurricanes fall short of the Stanley Cup, we can reasonably guess how it'll look. That brings us to the Senators. Give them credit for the season they've assembled, especially down the stretch; they're eighth in the league in expected goals for and first in goals against, putting them third in overall expected goal share; they're eighth in shots for and third in shots against, putting them in third place in overall shot share; and they allow 51 attempts per 60, second in the league. In terms of actual goals, they're good enough (2.99 per 60, seventh in the NHL). If that all sounds similar, it should. The Senators -- right down to the lack of tippy-top talent and potentially questionable goaltending -- are, at the moment, profiling like a good team that's a worse version of their opponent. It's fair to doubt Carolina as a true Cup contender, given that they, as constituted, have absorbed a lopsided loss in their only trip to the Eastern Conference final. What they haven't done is drop a series to a team that plays like a less evolved version of themselves. That's the Senators' task here, and it's tall. What is Carolina going to do between the pipes? Carolina has a conundrum on its hands: Who starts in net? Is it Brandon Bussi? He surprisingly started 39 games, but has gone ice-cold after a blazing start to his career. Since the Olympic break, Bussi has an .864 save percentage while allowing 6.9 goals above expected, the seventh-worst mark in the league. Is it Frederik Andersen? He was the team's starter in the 2025 playoffs, but has been notably mid this season by GSAx (0.7) and genuinely poor by save percentage (.874). It's hard to be sure how legit that GSAx number is when Andersen's expected save percentage on the same team is significantly lower than Bussi's (.873 compared to .890) in a similar number of contests. Is it Pyotr Kochetkov? He's shown some promise in the past, but folded in four playoff starts last spring and has been out of action for three months. Even in the games he has started, he's been slightly below par. It's varying levels of "pick your poison" with the model not seeing much separation between the three, leaning slightly towards Andersen for his track record. But at his current level, that feels like a gamble. The Hurricanes don't need goaltending to win, given their structure and possession game. But it's still an Achilles' heel that could easily be the reason they lose. Jaccob Slavin is a key reason why the Canes' identity has stayed so consistent despite roster turnover over the years. He plays an elite shutdown game while shouldering a heavy workload. The next most valuable defenseman on the depth chart is, basically, his opposite: Shayne Gostisbehere. Gostisbehere has never been a defensive ace, but he moves the needle offensively -- exactly what this team needs. Between Slavin and Gostisbehere, K'Andre Miller is the two-way bridge that can drive play at both ends of the ice. Despite having all the raw tools to be a high-end top-four defenseman, Miller never reached his potential in New York. New surroundings have helped him stabilize his game. His top comps after last season were Brady Skjei, Mike Matheson and Joel Edmundson. But his growth over the last year has pushed the bar higher, putting him on a path more similar to Hampus Lindholm, Erik Johnson and Mattias Ekholm. With Sean Walker, Miller has earned a 56.5 percent xG rate, thanks to this pair's strengths on both ends of the ice. The scoresheet hasn't been as kind, but a lower on-ice shooting percentage, and some shaky goaltending are behind that. Rookie Alex Nikishin gives this blue line a little more dimension, with his playoff-style of hockey. He got a taste of that environment last spring, and now has a chance to build on it. Up front, Aho leads the way as a center who does all the little things right in all three zones. But sometimes, a contender needs to have someone who consistently brings the Big Moments and Big-Time Scoring. As important as Aho is to the Canes -- and he is as a cornerstone up front -- it helps that this team has depth to make up for his lesser scoring punch. Relatively speaking, of course; the bar is high for franchise forwards. Jarvis contributes a little bit of everything. He is a pesky forechecker who leans into the Canes' identity, but he also helps boost this team's rush-based attack to add a little more dimension. Plus he is a true shutdown threat, which has allowed the coaches to lighten Jordan Staal's workload, maximizing Staal's game in the bottom-six. It obviously helps to have players who embody Canes hockey, like Jarvis and Logan Stankoven. But every team needs a little versatility. Nikolaj Ehlers goes against the grain, with his dynamic, puck-moving game. He is one of the best at generating scoring chances in transition with the Canes, but still has to kick his game up a notch to be a true contender-caliber No. 1 winger. With Ehlers in the fold, there's less pressure on Andrei Svechnikov. He has played to his strengths this year, with his high-danger passing, play-driving, and scoring all trending in the right direction. Jackson Blake has shown promise in the top nine in a complementary role. It makes for a deep forward group that Ottawa has to compete with. Like the Canes, there are some relative shortcomings at the top. Brady Tkachuk is an absolute energizer who lives for the Big Moments. His play at 4 Nations was a preview of what he could do in a playoff environment, and he stepped up for Ottawa last spring when the team craved scoring. As much as he drives play and creates a ton of scoring chances from the dangerous areas of the ice, there is just too wide of a gap between his xG and actual scoring. In a perfect world, there would be one game-breaker ahead of him in the lineup to slot him into a more favorable role. Tim Stützle took some strides this year. He was more active in transition and created more scoring chances off the rush, picked up his shot volume (and quality), and scored at a slightly higher pace than last year. But he's more passable than ideal for a 1C on a contender given he's only barely won his minutes at five-on-five -- and that's with Shane Pinto's line doing the heavy lifting. He, along with Michael Amadio, have become real defensive weapons in tough minutes putting up Selke-calibre numbers together, but lack offensive punch. That's something sorely missing in the bottom six. This season, the Sens do have a better secondary layer of offense to add support behind Tkachuk and Stützle. Dylan Cozens looked more like the breakout version of himself from 2022-23 thanks to some upticks in transition, and improved play in his own zone. Drake Batherson's scoring and forechecking amps up the top six, too. But overall, it still pales in comparison to that of other elite teams, including Carolina. Ottawa relies heavily on its defensive structure, and it helps to have a strong top four to facilitate that with a strong mix of puck-moving prowess and off-puck ability. One of Jake Sanderson's best strengths is his ability to retrieve pucks and break out with control; his efficiency in shifting from defense to offense is in a class of its own, according to AllThreeZones' tracking. That puck-moving play pairs perfectly with Artem Zub's defensive style. In almost 900 five-on-five minutes together, this duo has earned a 56.8 percent xG rate, driven by their incredibly stingy play. That pair's ability to absorb minutes against top competition has allowed the coaches to maximize Thomas Chabot on the second pair, and offseason add Jordan Spence on the third. Chabot's defense is still risky, but his offense outpaces it. Spence, on the other hand, has been a real bright spot since getting traded from LA. While he is still sheltered, the Senators have trusted him to play more this season, and have been rewarded with some really solid two-way play. What ties it all together is Linus Ullmark's series-stealing potential in goal. Yes, he started really slow. But since returning from a personal leave, Ullmark has a .904 save percentage and ranks 16th in GSAx. For an Ottawa team with defensive might, that was more than enough to surge to the playoffs and is one of the team's edges in this series. We'll see if it's enough against a Hurricanes team that has a bit more to offer. Jaccob Slavin vs. Jake Sanderson There are many who regard Slavin as the league's best defensive defenseman, and that's for good reason. This season, he posted a plus-5.7 Defensive Rating over 39 games, a pace that would've led the league. But on the other side of the ice, there's a prime example of the position evolving -- a defenseman who can match what Slavin does without the puck while not sacrificing anything with it. Sanderson's completeness in all three zones sets him apart from Slavin, whose game has become a bit more one-dimensional with age. Sanderson's growth into one of the game's best defensemen this season has been a guiding light for the Senators. He's the most valuable player in this series and if the Senators pull off an upset, Sanderson will likely be a big reason. In a matchup where the Senators don't have a lot of advantages, this is a potentially big one. Good as the Senators have been, it's tough to pick them in a series against a team that plays their style of game at a higher level. Goaltending, as ever, is a potential equalizing factor here, but Carolina still holds a clear overall edge.