Don't give money to the big players! RAVE coin's main players control 98% of the tokens; it hasn't peaked yet, so don't short it! These past few days, the entire cryptocurrency community has been talking about RAVE. It surged 6000% in a week, soaring from $0.27 to around $20, with its market capitalization briefly exceeding $4 billion. After seeing this volatile RAVE coin, are you itching to short it because you missed the bottom? But hold on, let's look at my analysis and judgment first. This isn't just an ordinary price increase for RAVE coin; it's a textbook example of "market manipulation" and a two-way harvesting of retail investors by large players.
1. Concentration of tokens: 98% of RAVE tokens are in the hands of the major shareholders.
A set of data is alarming: on-chain data shows that the top ten wallet addresses collectively control over 98% of the token supply. Among them, three main wallet addresses, suspected to be controlled by a team, control approximately 90% of the supply. Even more shockingly, six Gnosis Safe multi-signature wallets lock up 96% of the coins, with one address holding 77% alone. Retail investors hold less than 0.1% of the total supply.
Extremely scarce in actual circulation: Despite a total supply of 1 billion coins, only 24% are actually freely circulating in the market. The remaining 76% are locked in the team's vault. Bitget is the main battleground for spot trading; 88% of exchange spot trading is on Bitget. What does this mean? It means that market makers have enough coins to manipulate the market at will. The pitiful amount available on the open market is simply not enough to satisfy their needs. If you short the short, you're essentially guessing their next move.
II. Market Manipulation Techniques: Three Steps to Induce Short Selling and Harvest Short Positions
On-chain monitoring revealed a complete manipulation mechanism: First, inducing short selling: The market manipulator transferred 30.58 million RAVE from their wallet to Bitget, which the market interpreted as "the project team preparing to unload," inducing a large number of traders to establish short positions. Second, withdrawing the tokens: Over the next two days, the manipulator withdrew 31.94 million RAVE from Bitget back onto the blockchain, alleviating market expectations of selling pressure. Third, spot price surge and short squeeze: Simultaneously with the withdrawal of tokens, the spot price was strongly driven up, causing a large number of short sellers to trigger forced liquidation, leading to a chain reaction of liquidations and further amplifying the price increase.
Data confirms this: over $40 million in RAVE contracts were liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, with short positions accounting for 74%-82% of the liquidations. This is not a battle between bulls and bears; it's a one-sided massacre.
III. Contract open interest exceeds spot market value: Multiple gains, short squeeze deadlock RAVE
The open interest in the contracts has exceeded the total available spot market on the exchange, resulting in an extremely high OI/spot ratio. Short sellers simply don't have enough stock to cover their positions, creating a classic short squeeze deadlock. As long as there are short positions that haven't been liquidated, the market makers won't stop. Funding rates have been consistently extremely negative, meaning short not only suffer losses from soaring prices but also have their principal continuously drained. This is the market makers' core advantage—they hold the spot market and can control the price. The larger your short position, the more funding fees the market makers receive, giving them more ammunition. Funding rates are a "meat grinder" for short short. Many people overlook this fatal cost. During the period when RAVE broke through $19, funding rates on major exchanges reached an annualized negative 4800%. What does this mean? Short sellers had to pay 2% of their notional position value every hour. With 12x leverage, this amounts to approximately 24% of margin per hour. Even if the price drops by 23%, short would still lose 3963%. This isn't a problem that technical analysis can solve. It's an asymmetry at the rule level. Market makers create negative funding rates by manipulating the market, causing short short to be wiped out by funding costs even if their direction is correct. One trader posted: "Catching the precise top of RAVE is not important, because funding costs alone can destroy your position."
IV. Why is it said that the price of RAVE, the "demon coin," has "not yet peaked"?
First, the major players haven't distributed their holdings yet. On-chain data shows that RAVE's token structure hasn't shown a significant trend of dispersion; the top ten addresses still hold over 97% of the tokens, indicating that the major players haven't entered a large-scale distribution phase. Second, the major players' funds are still in the market. The order book data shows a large number of green buy orders on the right side, indicating that this isn't a natural price increase but rather the major players actively buying to maintain the price. Third, the liquidation data is asymmetrical. The short position liquidation rate remains above 80%, indicating that the short-selling pressure hasn't been completely eliminated. As long as the short sellers aren't eliminated, the short squeeze will continue. According to the double-confirmation topping standard of the speculative coin trading system, a true topping must simultaneously meet two conditions: on-chain confirmation of a large-scale deposit by major players into the exchange, and technical confirmation of a clear topping signal. Current on-chain data shows that major players are still withdrawing tokens from the exchange, not depositing them. A technical topping signal hasn't appeared yet. Without an on-chain "deposit" signal, no technical pattern can be considered sufficient evidence of a topping. There's no topping as long as the major players' holdings don't loosen or deposit. Low-volume declines don't necessarily indicate distribution. The current trend is either a double top or a continuation of the upward trend to new highs.
5. Why do I not recommend short RAVE?
1. The chip structure determines the outcome: if the market maker holds 98% of the coins, short is like throwing an egg against a rock.
2. Funding fees are like a slow, painful process: even if prices don't rise, high funding fees will slowly drain your margin.
3. Market makers can reverse course and reap profits at any time: Just when you think the price has peaked, the market maker can pull off a sudden reversal, causing both long and short positions to be wiped out.
4. In extreme market conditions, technical analysis is irrelevant: The daily RSI is approaching 100, trading volume continues to shrink, yet the price is still hitting new highs. This cannot be explained by technical indicators; it's pure market manipulation. If you still short RAVE, ask yourself three questions first. First, do you have more tokens than the market maker? The market maker holds 98% of the tokens; your short position is insignificant compared to them. Second, can you afford the funding rate? With negative funding rates, short pay huge amounts of interest every day, and even if the direction is correct, they may still be liquidated. Third, is your judgment reliable? Judging a "top" based on technical patterns is meaningless in the face of highly manipulated coins. On-chain data is the only reliable signal. Short RAVE is not trading; it's giving money to the market maker.
VI. My Core Conclusions and Recommendations: The RAVE market movement is essentially a textbook example of "market makers using their superior holdings to induce short selling and squeeze out weak hands." 98% of the shares are in the hands of market makers, contract open interest exceeds spot holdings, creating a short squeeze deadlock, and the major players haven't yet unloaded their holdings—all three signals point to the same conclusion: the market hasn't peaked, so don't short!
Some might say, "It's risen so high, it should correct by now." But in this environment of extreme market manipulation, only the big players know the top. If you short short, you're essentially guessing when they'll close their positions.
What is the correct response strategy?
If you'd like to try a small long position, it's recommended to wait for a pullback confirmation. The price has already rebounded from its low, and chasing the high carries significant risk; be sure to set a stop-loss order. Short is strictly prohibited because there are no on-chain deposits and negative fees persist. Observing is the best option; wait for an on-chain deposit signal. For those unfamiliar with contract trading, the best strategy is to simply observe.
Market conditions change rapidly; entry and exit points should be determined based on real-time market conditions. Follow the trend after a breakout! Regardless of your confidence level, strictly adhere to stop-loss and take-profit strategies! That's all for today! Follow me to stay on track! If you're unsure about future market strategies, you can follow me via WeChat (V: UUQP66) or QQ (: 3190821153).
