According to BlockBeats, on April 21st, Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, warned that the crucial U.S. cryptocurrency bill, the CLARITY Act, has reached a critical juncture. If the review process is delayed until after mid-May, the likelihood of its passage in 2026 will drastically decrease. Currently, the probability of the bill becoming law this year is estimated at around 50%, or even lower. Polymarket data also shows that its passage probability has dropped from 82% in February to 47%.
Thorn pointed out that the Senate's schedule is currently packed with matters such as military authorization for Iran, funding for the Department of Homeland Security, and the presidential nomination, leaving little time for legislation. If the Democrats regain control of the House of Representatives after the November midterm elections, legislative work could stall.
Although the bill passed the House of Representatives by a bipartisan majority of 294-134 last July, negotiations in the Senate were more complex, facing several major obstacles. First, disagreements over stablecoin rewards were the primary reason for the delay in deliberations since January. Second, the draft's provision explicitly excluding non-custodial software developers from the definition of "money transmitters" faced opposition from law enforcement. Furthermore, regarding ethics provisions, some Democrats pushed for restrictions on government officials and their families profiting from crypto assets during their terms of office. Finally, concerns about the SEC's authority and vacant commission seats added to the political complexity.
Thorn believes that a full Senate vote in July is "theoretically possible," but would require extraordinary political will and coordination.
