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ToggleBitcoin broke strongly above the $78,000 mark today. As of the afternoon of April 22nd (Taiwan time), BTC is currently trading at $78,389.79 , a daily increase of +3.19% . The 24-hour trading range is between $74,821.57 and $78,450, reaching a price high in nearly 14 days. Ethereum followed suit, currently trading at $2,393.21 (+3.21%), approximately 2.4% below its April 18th peak of $2,451.
On the same day that the crypto market signaled a strong rebound, two interest rate strategists at Danske Bank warned that mainstream market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this year may be "seriously underestimated."
The huge discrepancy between the expectations of the three parties
In an FX Forecast Update report released on April 17, Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen, senior analyst (interest rate strategy) and Jens Peter Sørensen , head of bond strategy at Danske Bank, stated clearly: "We expect further rate cuts of 0.25 percentage points in September and December, which is more than the market currently expects."
The discrepancy between the two analysts' predictions is particularly glaring when viewed in the context of the numbers:
According to money market data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), derivatives currently reflect a 9 basis point rate cut in 2026—which translates to the market's almost complete disbelief that the Federal Reserve will take any substantial rate cuts this year.
The median forecast from the Fed's March dot plot is for a 25bp rate cut (1 time) for the whole year, which is already a relatively conservative stance.
Danske Bank's latest forecast is 50bp (25bp each in September and December) – nearly six times higher than the current market price-in.
It is worth noting that Danske Bank's baseline forecast in March was "a 25bp cut in June and September respectively". This time, the timeline has been pushed back by a quarter, indicating that they believe the Fed's actions will start later than originally expected, but the force will eventually be there.
Technical significance of BTC breakout: Increased volume after 5 days of consolidation
This breakout in BTC wasn't entirely unexpected. Looking back at the price action, the price hit a recent low of $70,678 on April 13th, after which it underwent a structural rebound. On April 17th, it touched $77,956 intraday, confirming the previous high, and then entered a period of consolidation for about five days.
Today's surge in trading volume broke through $78,000, indicating that BTC has effectively stabilized and surpassed its previous high, simultaneously refreshing its 14-day high to $78,173 (CoinGecko data, @Taiwan time 13:25).
On the macro front, positive signals have been accumulating recently: the extension of the ceasefire between Trump and Iran has reduced geopolitical risk premiums; the market's motivation to support prices has increased ahead of the expiration of large-scale options on April 24; and with the FOMC meeting approaching on April 28, the repricing of market expectations for interest rate cuts is a potential catalyst.
Dynamic Zone Observation: The Repricing Space for Risky Assets Between 9bp and 50bp
If Danske Bank's forecast is correct—that the market has indeed significantly underestimated the extent of the Fed's rate cuts—then current interest rate futures pricing will face a large-scale correction, and risk assets still have room for repricing. Historically, whenever the Fed's actual actions exceed market expectations, high-beta assets (including Bitcoin) are often the most direct beneficiaries.
However, warning signs should not be ignored. If Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell maintains a hawkish tone at the FOMC meeting on April 28, or suggests that inflation data does not yet warrant a rate cut, it could directly clash with the renewed optimism in the market in the short term.
Longer-term variables: Market rumors suggest that Kevin Warsh, Trump's preferred hawkish successor, may take over the Fed after Powell's term expires on May 15. If this appointment is finalized, the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's policy direction will be further amplified.
Currently, the cryptocurrency market is choosing to believe the Danske Bank's version. $78,000 has been breached; the next question is: what answer will the FOMC provide?
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